Final Poll Released For NJ Governor’s Race: See Results

NEW JERSEY — Gov. Phil Murphy holds a nine-point edge over Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, according to a final poll released ahead of Election Day.

Murphy leads Ciattarelli 50 percent to 41 percent in the latest poll released by the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University on Oct. 28. Three percent of respondents were undecided.

That poll came out one day after a Monmouth University poll that showed Murphy held an 11-point lead over Ciattarelli, 50 percent to 39 percent. Read more here: Murphy Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Ciattarelli: Latest Poll

The poll released by Stockton last week mirrors the one released by the university in September, when Murphy also held a 50-41 edge. That poll was released prior to the first of two debates between the candidates.

See related:
4 Takeaways From The First Murphy, Ciattarelli Debate
4 Takeaways From The 2nd Gubernatorial Debate

“When you consider that this poll was taken after the gubernatorial debates were done, it appears that voters’ feelings are fairly baked in at this point,” William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University Executive Director John Froonjian said. “The polling spread between the candidates is very consistent.”

But the debates might not have had any impact on potential voters. Among those polled, 60 percent of voters said they didn’t watch or listen to either gubernatorial debate, and 95 percent said they didn’t tune in to the debate between their running mates, Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver and Republican Diane Allen.

“The fact that many did not view the gubernatorial candidate debates does not reflect negatively on the value of these debates,” Froonjian said. “Most partisans already know how they are going to vote, but debates have value in allowing undecided or uncertain voters to evaluate the candidates in action.”

If there is any change, it’s that voters seem to be more familiar with the Republican challenger than they were when the Hughes Center conducted its previous poll.

In the latest poll, 19 percent of respondents said they were unfamiliar with Ciattarelli, down from 45 percent in September.

His favorability was up slightly, to 38 percent viewing him positively, compared to a 32 percent favorability rating in September. Meanwhile, 37 percent view him unfavorably, compared with 21 percent in September.

Murphy’s numbers remained virtually unchanged, with 49 percent of respondents saying they had a favorable view of the governor, compared to the 50 percent he had in September. The latest poll saw 44 percent say they had an unfavorable impression of the incumbent Democratic governor, compared to 43 percent in September.

Of the 522 likely voters polled by the Hughes Center for the most recent poll, 45 percent of respondents thought the state was heading in the wrong direction, compared to 42 percent who say the Garden State is heading in the right direction and 13 percent who are unsure.

Still, 52 percent approved of Murphy’s job performance leading the state as governor, while 44 percent disapproved.

The top issue of concern cited by those polled was property taxes (15 percent), followed by taxes in general (12 percent), COVID-19 safety (11 percent) and the economy (8 percent).

Ciattarelli leads among white voters and men while Murphy is supported at higher rates by those with a four-year degree or more, Hispanic voters, women, and, overwhelmingly, by Black voters, said research associate Alyssa Maurice.

Nearly identical levels of extreme partisan polarization were evident among Democrats and Republicans across every measure, but Murphy also led among independents who were polled. There are more than 1 million more registered Democrats in New Jersey than registered Republicans.

It’s too early to tell how that will translate when voters pull the lever for real. The early voting period in New Jersey ended Sunday, but those results won’t be tallied until polls close on Election Day. As of Friday, turnout for the early voting period was 2.1 percent, according to NJ.com.

The Stockton poll was conducted from Oct. 17 to 26, via live phone calls from interviewers who were mostly Stockton students. Overall, 81 percent of interviews were conducted on cell phones and 19 percent on landline phones.

Both cell and landline samples included a mix of voter list and random digit dialing (RDD) sample. Data are weighted based on U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data for New Jersey on variables of age, race, ethnicity, education level, sex and region.

The poll's margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.