What Is New Jersey Thankful For? Probably Not These Turkey Prices

NEW JERSEY — What you've heard is true. That Thanksgiving turkey? It's going to be more expensive this holiday season.

Food prices rose 0.5 percent from September to October, and that includes a poorly timed rise in the price of meat, including poultry. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose by 2.4 percent during the period.

It marks an even more concerning trend for consumers from October 2020, when food prices were 5.5 percent lower overall.

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The Consumer Price Index was up overall in the New York-Newark-Jersey City area, according to the latest BLS report.

Prices in the region increased 0.3 percent in October after increasing 0.5 percent in September. Chief Regional Economist Martin Kohli attributed the increase to higher prices for energy, food, and other items, the report said.

Energy prices saw a stark jump, rising over 27 percent, in large part due to a rise in the price of gasoline, according to the report.

Alexandre Olbrecht is a professor of economics at Ramapo College, and the executive director of the Eastern Economic Association. Olbrecht agrees with Kohli in that a number of factors are contributing to rising food costs, and rising costs generally.

"I think there are several factors contributing to inflation, and they are essentially hitting at the same time," he said. "A low interest rate environment along with specific actions by the Federal Reserve to lower long term rates will over time contribute to higher prices. I think we are seeing some of those outcomes because of the accommodative stance the central bank has had in recent years, which was mainly due to the COVID-19 disruptions to the economy."

Energy costs, which are controlled by the global market, also play a part. Put simply, "higher energy prices means it is more expensive to move goods around," Olbrecht said.

"The supply chain issues are also problematic and the scarcity of goods getting to market has allowed prices to move higher," he added.

All of these factors are putting families in a tough spot, according to a CBS3 report.

Food Bank of South Jersey President and CEO Fred Wasiak told the station that food is flying off the shelves as families continue dealing with rising costs, with many turning to their local food banks.

"Food prices are up, gas prices are up,” Wasiak told the publication, "so all those who are living paycheck to paycheck, all these prices, all of a sudden say, 'Do I pay for medicine, do I pay for electricity, do I pay rent or do I pay for food so we can have a good holiday meal with my family?'"

It's clear that prices won't sink prior to the holiday next week, but what does the future hold? According to Olbrecht, the Federal Reserve is giving hints as to what they might do, but it's also dependent on the global market.

"I think future inflation is dependent on whether the Federal Reserve starts to tighten monetary policy (which it is sending signals it will) and what happens with energy prices," he said.

In the meantime, keep the coupons at the ready. The bird is going to be expensive this year.