Here's How Likely A White Christmas Is For NYC This Year

NEW YORK CITY — The probability of a white Christmas is historically between 10 and 25 percent in New York City, a projection based on three-decade averages in snow accumulation, temperatures and other climatological data.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s white Christmas probability calculations represent exact science. But they don’t always match the reality on the ground, or what current forecasting models suggest for New York City.

AccuWeather gave New York City a "low" chance of seeing a white Christmas this year in its updated forecast.

This is due to warmer temperatures in the forecast for late December, as a milder Pacific air mass is expected to take over, the private weather company said.

This probability data also doesn’t account for the expected development of a La Niña climate pattern, which could make for a snowier-than-normal winter in some parts of the country.

The timing of the La Niña could make it more likely there will be an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

Meteorologists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expected the colder, wetter climate pattern to develop late last winter, then said in a mid-November blog that chances are about 57 percent that La Niña will develop yet this year.

For Christmas, Accuweather meteorologists predict a high of 40 degrees and a low of 35 degrees on Wednesday, with a 30 percent chance of rain or snow showers, and then rain or drizzle possible in the afternoon and evening for New York City.

An extended December outlook from The Weather Channel and Atmospheric G2 said much of the country will be near or drier than average in December.

Forecasters said the month started on a cold note in much of the country, but the last half of the month should be warmer for much of the Lower 48 states. However, that is not the case in five boroughs, where temperatures are predicted to be chillier than average.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac said in its 2024 white Christmas forecast that chances are slim that most of the country will have snow on the ground on Dec. 25.

Patch's national desk contributed to this report.

For questions and tips, email Miranda.Levingston@Patch.com.