'Silent' Surge Shows 'Minimal' COVID-19 Rates In NY

NEW YORK — A later-than-normal winter surge in COVID-19 cases is catching some by surprise as infections nationwide reached the highest levels in three years just as Americans were gathering with their families for the holidays.

Health experts call the current uptick in cases a "silent" surge because it comes after a long lull in COVID-19 transmission. This one came "out of nowhere," Michael Hoerger, an associate professor at Tulane University School of Medicine and public health expert on tracking COVID-19 trends, wrote on X.

Hoerger, who runs a COVID-19 forecasting model that pulls heavily from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention wastewater surveillance data, estimates that 1 in 49 people, or about 2.1 percent of the U.S. population, are currently infected with the virus, according to Hoerger’s data.

Typically, COVID levels start to increase in November and reach a seasonal peak around the end of the year. However, through October of this year, the wastewater surveillance data showed COVID-19 transmission at nearly the lowest level ever.

Now, data current as of Jan. 3, shows levels nationwide are "high," with more than a dozen states.

The Northeast region of the United States, which New York falls under, has a wastewater viral activity levels of SARS-COV-2 score of 4.13, or "moderate," as of Jan. 2. The national average is 4.75.

In New York, the wastewater viral activity level for COVID-19 is currently "minimal." No data on viral activity level is available for Long Island, according to the chart.

Wastewater viral activity trends are "low" in New Jersey; "high" in Connecticut; "high" in Massachusetts; "very high" in Pennsylvania; and "high" in Vermont.

States with "very high" COVID rates are Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Trends began to shift in early December, increasing from "low" to "high" by the middle of the month. By Dec. 21, COVID-19 cases had nearly tripled from Dec. 7, according to the data.

The CDC no longer requires state health departments to submit data on COVID cases, instead using wastewater surveillance, test positivity and emergency department visits to track COVID activity.

Test positivity inched up to 7.1 percent from 7 percent the week before. COVID-related emergency room visits and deaths also increased slightly in the week ending Dec. 28.

In New York, the percentage of deaths caused by the coronavirus was 1.2 percent over the past week, ending on Dec. 28, according to CDC data. That is a 50 percent increase from the previous week, according to the CDC.

This winter’s wave is different from previous upticks in the virus, according to Hoerger, who is an associate professor at Tulane University School of Medicine and public health expert on tracking COVID-19 trends.

"Many will be caught off guard" by COVID infections this winter, Hoerger wrote in the forecast, adding the winter wave "began much later than 'typical' this year, leading many to a false sense of security."

Hoerger said it’s likely the current wave of COVID is a medium-sized wave — the fifth highest of 10 since 2020, but added there is "still much uncertainty."

Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told NBC’s "Today" that he expects post-holiday increases in COVID, seasonal influenza and RSV.

"It’s silent (transmission) because most of these infections are quite mild, so people are not testing, or they’re blowing them off as a cold," Schaffner said.

A summer wave of COVID provided the U.S. population with some immunity, but that is starting to wane as highly transmissible new variants — including XEC and descendants of the FLiRT variant — are circulating.

"These current variants are causing a lot of milder infections, which are going largely undetected," Schaffner said, emphasizing that people who have mild or no symptoms are still contagious.

"The communicability of these viruses is contributing to a silent epidemic, if you will," he said.

Symptoms are similar to previous omicron subvariants, including sore throat, congestion, runny nose, cough, fatigue, head and body aches, fever or chills, shortness of breath, nausea and loss of appetite, diarrhea and loss of taste or smell.

The CDC recommends that everyone 6 months or older get the updated COVID-19 booster for 2024-2025. CDC data shows 21 percent of U.S. adults have gotten their booster.

The CDC recommends people who are exposed or show symptoms, even mild ones, should get tests. Those who test positive should stay home, and seek treatment if they’re immunocompromised or otherwise at risk of a severe infection. Social distancing and wearing a face mask are also encouraged, the CDC stated.