Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts Look Especially Grim This Season

HUDSON VALLEY, NY — The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season could be a particularly rough one, according to early forecasts.

The Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. could see more hurricanes than normal this year, according to the latest predictions from both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University hurricane researchers.

NOAA says there is a 65 percent chance of an above-average hurricane season for 2022 and only a 10 percent chance of below-average storm activity.

The NOAA, part of the National Weather Service, is predicting 14-21 named storms during this hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Six to 10 of those storms could become hurricanes, and three to six could be major hurricanes, which are category 3 or higher.

Meanwhile, Colorado State University hurricane researchers point to the likely absence of El Niño for their prediction of an above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season with 17 named storms. Of those, eight are expected to become hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 1, sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph) with four reaching major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5, sustained winds of 111 mph or greater). When El Niño conditions are present, the wind shear it produces disrupts the creation of storms.

"As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past storms — such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago — remind us that the impact of one storm can be felt for years," NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said announcing the not-so-rosy-forecast. "Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecasting accuracy has continued to improve, allowing us to better predict the impacts of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods."

According to NOAA, above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea and stronger African Easterly Waves could help to seed the strongest and longest-lived hurricanes.

It could be a double whammy for coastal regions this season, according to the Boat Owners Association of The United States (BoatUS). Not only are more storms predicted for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, but also the average annual number of storms has already increased from 12 to 14 because of updated storm season data.

The organization is urging boaters to adjust to this new reality for the potential for more frequent storms that can damage, sink, or total their vessels. The group is offering boat prep videos, downloadable storm preparation guides and checklists at BoatUS.com/Hurricane.

Boaters can create their own hurricane plan, watch a video on how to set lines, or review the comprehensive BoatUS Magazine Hurricane Planning Guide to help protect their boats. When a storm approaches, the BoatUS App offers realtime local storm tracking and alerts.

BoatUS says the best way to mitigate damage is to remove your boat from the water when a storm approaches. The advice is based on nearly four decades of storm catastrophe experience. If that’s not possible, get your hurricane plan in place now before the season starts. Talk to your marina or storage facility and get what you need such as extra docklines and chafe protection. A boater’s last backstop is the boat’s insurance policy. Ensure that it includes full salvage coverage and offers hurricane haulout coverage to help ease the cost of a storm-related haulout.

NOAA also released the list of names agreed to by the World Meteorological Organization, which will be used to name Atlantic storms in 2022.

NOAA stressed its forecast is just for the number of potential storms this season, not for how many will make landfall.

Patch's Alex Costello contributed to this report.