Will Long Island See A White Christmas? Here’s What The Odds Say

LONG ISLAND, NY. — While meteorologists can’t yet predict with any certainty whether Long Island will have a white Christmas this year, current predictions of a warmer than normal December on Long Island suggest chances may be worse than historical averages.

It doesn’t have to snow on the big day to qualify as a white Christmas; if there’s an inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, the National Weather Service counts it. And with cold in the forecast, snow already on the ground in many parts of the country could stick around.

Past weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests the probability of a white Christmas is about or below 10 percent on Long Island.

Historical averages in other New York metro areas are:

Northern New York: A bit more than a 50-50 chance of a white Christmas

Western New York: Slightly lower than the north country, but still about 50-50

Southern New York (Westchester County, New York City, Long Island): Closer to a 20 percent chance in Rockland and Westchester, with chances down at or below 10 percent in the city and on the island.

NOAA’s analysis of historical weather patterns from 1991 to 2020 suggests certain parts of the country offer the best odds for a white Christmas, including Alaska, Minnesota, Maine, Upstate New York, the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and virtually all of Idaho. This also holds true for the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains.

In its 2025-2026 winter outlook, NOAA said a third or more of the country will see colder-than-normal temperatures, and that it’ll also be wetter, although that doesn’t necessarily mean there will be more snow. A weak La Niña is expected to continue before a climate-neutral pattern takes over in January.

On Long Island, NOAA data indicates that winter temperatures will likely be higher than normal, with precipitation expected to reach about its average for the season in 2025-26.

In its updated forecast, The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts most of New York will have a White Christmas, but southern New York and Long Island won’t

The chances for a white Christmas are greatest in the Northeast, Appalachians, lower Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley. Chances aren’t quite as good in the Upper Midwest, High Plains, and the Intermountain regions.

AccuWeather plans to release its 2025 Christmas forecast at mid-month. The Weather Channel also hasn’t released its forecast, but said in its winter outlook that colder temperatures are expected in much of the country before it warms in January.

In New York, The Weather Channel’s winter outlook includes a warmer-than-normal projection, with certain parts of western New York projected to experience slightly lower temperatures than the rest of the state.