Grim Projection Suggests Coronavirus Will Kill 15K In NY By Aug

NEW YORK CITY — The new coronavirus could take more than 15,500 lives in New York state over the next four months, according to projections made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The Seattle-based institute, affiliated with the University of Washington and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, made its projections using the expected peak of the infection and the number of hospital beds, intensive-care beds and ventilators available for COVID-19 patients when most needed.

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For the United States as a whole, the institute predicted that coronavirus infection would peak on April 14, when the nationwide supply of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients would fall 50,000 short of the demand and the supply of intensive-care beds for such patients would fall short by nearly 15,000. Nationwide deaths on that date will top 2,300, the institute predicted, and would total more than 81,000 by Aug. 4.

In New York, the peak is expect on April 10, with the analysts fearing 798 deaths will be recorded on that day alone.

The authors of the research article containing these findings wrote, “Our estimate of 81,000 deaths in the US over the next 4 months is an alarming number, but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states.”

In New York, the institute projects that on April 10, the number of beds available for coronavirus patients will fall 58,564 short of the 71,574 needed, and the number of intensive-care beds will fall 10,352 short of the 11,070 needed.

The institute didn't break out numbers for New York City as a whole and it's unclear if it took into account field hospitals that have been created, including in the Javits Center and Central Park.

In making projections for the states, the institute took note of when they issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans.

“The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths,” the authors wrote.

New York's leaders have time-and-again stressed that New York does not have enough beds, ventilators or medical professionals to cope with the numbers of cases they say are inevitably coming. Both New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and Governor Andrew Cuomo have appealed to the federal government for help.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the faces of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force, on Sunday warned that the novel coronavirus could infect millions of people in the United States and account for more than 100,000 deaths.

Speaking on CNN's "State of the Union," Fauci said that based on what he's seeing, the U.S. could experience between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 — a number he said would reach into the millions if social distancing had not been put in place.

Even with the stay-at-home measures,"We're going to have millions of cases," said Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noting that projections are subject to change, given that the disease's outbreak is "such a moving target."

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With reporting by Jean Dubail/Patch