NY 1 Of Only 3 States Close To Containing Coronavirus: Study

NEW YORK CITY – New York is one of only three U.S. states on track to contain the new coronavirus, a group of epidemiologists tracking the outbreak ruled.

It's a major turnaround for a state that, only a few weeks ago, was the world's COVID-19 epicenter.

New Jersey and Massachusetts are the only other two states deemed close to containing it by the group Covid Act Now.

In New York City on June 22, only 14 cases had been diagnosed, according to city data. There were no new hospitalizations and no deaths.

Compare that to April 6 when there were 6,377 cases, 1,720 hospitalizations and 565 deaths.

Statewide, there were 597 new cases on June 22 and 27 deaths.

Michigan had been in the select group Monday but dropped out Tuesday because it was deemed not to have enough contact tracing staff to contain new outbreaks.

"We went from one of the highest infection rates to one of the lowest and we did it by making decisions based on the science, the data and the facts - not on politics," New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said Tuesday.

"New York is finally coming back and I can't stress enough how important it is that we don't blow this incredible progress now. To all New Yorkers - wear a mask, get tested, socially distance, wash your hands and be smart

Here is the Monday map from Covid Act Now, a nonprofit consortium of health care and public policy leaders from across the nation, including researchers and epidemiologists from Georgetown University and Stanford University.

This is what Covid Act Now wrote about New York:

Contact Tracing: Per best available data, New York has 9,600 contact tracers. With an average of 663 new daily cases, we estimate New York needs 3,315 contact tracing staff to trace all new cases in 48 hours, before too many other people are infected. This means that New York is likely able to trace 100% of new COVID infections in 48 hours. When this level of tracing is coupled with widely available testing, COVID can be contained without resorting to lockdowns.

Infection rate: On average, each person in New York with COVID is infecting 0.81 other people. Because each person is infecting less than one other person, the total number of current cases in New York is shrinking.

ICU headroom used: New York has about 4,121 ICU beds. We estimate that 42% (1,730) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. With 2,391 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 349 are needed by COVID cases, or 15% of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections.

Positive test rate: A low percentage (1.1%) of COVID tests were positive, which suggests enough widespread, aggressive testing in New York to detect most new cases. Identifying and isolating new cases can help contain COVID without resorting to lockdowns.