Hurricane Season 2024: 'Above Normal' Activity Forecast, NOAA Says

LONG ISLAND, NY— Hurricane season kicked off for 2024 Saturday, and according to NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center, above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin is expected.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA added that it is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms — with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes, with winds of 74 miles per hour or higher, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes —category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher.

NOAA added that forecasters have a "70 percent confidence in these ranges."

According to NOAA, the above-normal activity due to a number of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear.

"With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property."