NY Coronavirus: Nearly 2,000 Dead; Experts Expect Late-April Peak

NEW YORK, NY — The mathematical models that forecast when the most cases of the new coronavirus will crush New York's hospital systems range from as near as seven days to as far as late April, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday as he painted a picture of a seemingly moving target based on rapidly changing data.

The state uses multiple projections — each based on different assumptions — including one funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Those models are then compiled into an overarching composite projection, which Cuomo uses to formulate his decisions, such as the statewide stay-at-home order for nonessential workers and his newly announced decision to shutter New York City playgrounds.

With minimal social distancing — meaning mass noncompliance — Cuomo said the state could see 110,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations alone and 37,000 people on ventilators. But even with a high compliance of social distancing, the models project a grim reality: a peak of 75,000 coronavirus-related hospitalizations and 25,000 people on ventilators. Both composite projections expect the peak to come sometime in late April.

Cuomo's address Wednesday reinforced a sobering reality that even in the best-case scenarios, New York is bracing for an enormous, unprecedented wave to crash on its hospital system. His remarks came as coronavirus cases in the state increased Wednesday to nearly 84,000, with about 7,900 new cases overnight and about 400 new deaths, making a total of 1,941 deaths. Roughly 12,000 are hospitalized and 3,000 are receiving intensive care treatment, underscoring the need for the state to procure more ventilators.

"We have to succeed," Cuomo said. "We have to find a way. There is too much at stake."

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To that end, Cuomo shut down all New York City playgrounds Wednesday but kept open spaces available for people to walk or run while maintaining social distance. He rebuked those who refused to comply.

"Who else has to die for you to understand?" he said. "You have a responsibility, especially in New York where everything is so dense."

Cuomo reiterated it's important to remember people do recover from the coronavirus and noted his brother, CNN anchor Chris Cuomo, was diagnosed Tuesday and is at home with a fever and chills. Despite having the virus, Chris Cuomo still held his show Tuesday night from his basement.

"What a gutsy, courageous thing do to," Andrew Cuomo said. "And in some ways it can be very instructive to many people. Everyone wants to know: 'What happens if you get it?' The information can be helpful to people: It's not a death sentence."

Both Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island saw large overnight increases in the number of coronavirus cases.

Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone said more than 1,000 new coronavirus cases were reported in 24 hours. The uptick included 708 people hospitalized, 229 in intensive care, and 199 on ventilators.

Nassau also saw a one-day jump Wednesday of more than 1,000 cases, with 13 new deaths reported: eight men and five women ranging in ages from 56 to 89 years old. That brought total deaths in the county to 76.

The apex of cases could come during many spring holidays, such as Easter, Passover and Ramadan. Religious leaders have said they'll have to be celebrated differently this year.

Nassau County Executive Laura Curran, joined by leaders of different faiths, urged residents to celebrate the holidays at home, even if that means celebrating alone.

"We can celebrate in our hearts, we can celebrate in our souls, and we can celebrate through technology," Curran said.

With Palm Sunday coming up, Bishop Lionel Harvey of the First Baptist Cathedral of Westbury said his church will prepare individually wrapped palms for parishioners and hand them out in a drive-thru at the cathedral. The people handling the palms will be wearing masks and gloves, he said. Other congregants will deliver the wrapped palms to the mailboxes of those who can't leave their homes.

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