Will El Niño Dash Dreams Of White Christmas In NY?

NEW YORK — With all the talk of a strong El Niño climate pattern that will last through spring, does that increase or decrease the probability of a white Christmas in New York?

Will there be snow on Christmas morning? According to experts, it depends on where you live in New York State.

Historical averages for New York put the chances of at least an inch of snowfall on the ground Christmas morning at between 75 percent and 100 percent for the far north and Adirondack area; 50 to 75 percent for Central and Western New York, as well as Albany; about 25 to 40 percent for areas west of New York City; and about 10 to 25 percent for New York City and Long Island, according to the National Weather Service.

El Niño winters typically have above-normal precipitation, but with warmer-than-normal winter temperatures, it’s not guaranteed to come as snow.

In its 2023 white Christmas forecast, The Old Farmer’s Almanac suggests most snow-prone areas, except for the Pacific Northwest, will see above-normal snowfall, this Christmas. That makes the Northwest risky for holiday ski vacations, but the Rockies in the West and Appalachians in the East should have abundant snowfall, according to the forecast.

The forecast for New York suggests a frosty winter with plenty of snow and cold, the forecast said.

However, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac, the Atlantic corridor — including the lower Hudson Valley, Long Island and New York City — is not likely to see a white Christmas.

Some of the nation’s top forecasters expect El Niño to dump disappointment on people who dream of a snowy Christmas.

“Weak, moderate, and strong El Niños all share similar features for the month of December,” John Baranik, a meteorologist for DTN, wrote in a blog post on Progressive Farmer earlier this fall. “It is usually very warm for most of the U.S. outside the Southwest where it is typically cooler, while precipitation increases are seen across the southern tier.”

The absence of blasts of cold, arctic air “does not mean that December will be warm every day, or that snow will not occur,” Baranik wrote, “but it does mean that the chances for a white Christmas are reduced for most of the country outside of the western mountains?”

Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said the December temperature outlook favors a broad area of above-normal temperatures for the eastern U.S., stretching from the northern Great Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley and eastward toward the coast.

AccuWeather has yet to issue its white Christmas forecast, but meteorologist Paul Pastelok told USA Today that aside from the mountain areas, he doesn’t expect a lot of snow at Christmastime in the East.

Chances for a white Christmas are also dismal in big Mid-Atlantic cities such as New York City, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., he said.

However, some areas of the West will probably see significant snowfall from mid- to late December, Pastelok said. In western mountain regions, “there is a high percentage of a white Christmas in an El Niño year,” he added.