Winter Storm Could Hit The HV This Weekend: What To Expect

HUDSON VALLEY, NY — The first major storm of the 2023-24 winter is possible this weekend, and though it is also uncertain if it will bring the region enough snow to shovel or a wintry mix, the National Weather Service has issued a hazardous outlook for Dutchess and Ulster counties.

"An accumulating snowfall is possible for portions of eastern New York and western New England for late Saturday into Sunday, depending on the track of a storm system passing off the mid Atlantic coast. Currently, areas near and south of Interstate 90 have the best chance for a possible plowable snowfall," the NWS said.

According to Bryan Ramsey, meteorologist with the National Weather Service Office in Upton, because the weather system is still three days out, "it's what we know, versus what we don't know."

What is clear, he said, is that there is a potential for moderate to heavy precipitation and gusty to strong winds Saturday evening into the day on Sunday. It's not yet been determined whether rain or snow is expected, he added. "We're looking at a lot of different solutions, with no real consensus on the track of this coastal storm," with its potential path varying by 300 miles, he said.

While forecast models began predicting various amounts of snow Wednesday — from 3-16 inches — Bruce Furbeck of First Due Weather called for caution.

"I remain skeptical with the development of this event. The forecast is subject to change and could go higher or lower with snowfall totals," he said on Facebook Wednesday.

Based on the preliminary data, it would not be unreasonable to suggest the possibility of 4-8 inches or more of snowfall across Orange County, he said; but "I am only sharing this preliminary information to provide you an idea of my expectations for Saturday night and Sunday so you can remain in the know."

As the storm moves northeastward, it is expected to strengthen, said Alyssa Glenny, AccuWeather Meteorologist. "Forecasters caution that heavier bands of snow can develop from West Virginia and northwestern Virginia to the Hudson Valley during this time."

Any accumulating snow could result in travel slowdowns, but this storm could have greater impact than others of similar magnitude because it has been two years since more than 1 inch of snow has accumulated in much of the Northeast. "It can take people a bit of time to once again get used to driving in and otherwise dealing with the snow," said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter.

Here's the daily forecast based on Putnam County:

• Wednesday - Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. West winds around 5 mph.
• Tonight - Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds around 5 mph.
• Thursday - Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon.
• Thursday Night - Mostly clear. Lows around 20. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
• Friday - Sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
• Friday Night - Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
• Saturday - Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 50 percent.
• Saturday Night - Snow. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 80 percent.
• Sunday - Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid 30s.
• Sunday Night - Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.
• Monday - Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.

Patch Editor Lisa Finn contributed to this report.