NOAA 2021 Winter Outlook: Ohio To Get More Precipitation?

OHIO — The Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley region — which includes the Buckeye State — will likely suffer a wetter-than-average winter.

That's based on new long-range forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. While Ohio will see more precipitation than usual this winter, the forecast also projects a warmer-than-usual season this year.

There's no official prediction on snowfall totals for the upcoming winter. The NOAA generally avoids such predictions because they're unlikely to be accurate less than a week before an anticipated storm.

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It's unclear how quickly temperatures will fall to typical winter levels. October 2021 has a decent shot at becoming the hottest October in northern Ohio history. NOAA believes Ohio will continue to see unseasonably warm temperatures from December through February.

The Big Picture

For the annual winter forecast, released Thursday, NOAA enlisted its team of federal forecasters equipped with the latest computer models to paint a picture of La Niña's impact between December and February.

“Using the most up-to-date observing technologies and computer models, our dedicated forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for the months ahead,” said Michael Farrar, director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Here is a recap of the highlights from NOAA:

Temperature

• Warmer-than-average conditions are most likely across the Southern tier of the U.S. and much of the Eastern U.S. with the greatest likelihood of above-average temperatures in the Southeast.
• Below-average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern Plains.
• The Upper Mississippi Valley and small areas of the Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

Precipitation

• The Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and parts of the Ohio Valley and western Alaska have the greatest chances for wetter-than-average conditions.
• Drier-than-average conditions are favored in south-central Alaska, southern California, the Southwest, and the Southeast.
• The forecast for the remainder of the U.S. shows equal chances for below-, near- or above-average precipitation during winter months.

Drought

• Widespread severe to exceptional drought continues to dominate the western half of the continental U.S., Northern Plains, and the Missouri River Basin.
• Drought conditions are forecast to persist and develop in the Southwest and Southern Plains.
• The Pacific Northwest, northern California, the upper Midwest, and Hawaii are most likely to experience drought improvement.