Will PA See A White Christmas? Here’s What The Odds Say

While meteorologists can’t yet predict with any certainty whether Pennsylvanians will have a white Christmas this year, current predictions of a cold December suggest chances may be better than historical averages.

It doesn’t have to snow on the big day to qualify as a white Christmas; if there’s an inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, the National Weather Service counts it. And with cold in the forecast, snow already on the ground in many parts of the country could stick around.

Past weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests the probability of a white Christmas is about 11 percent in center city Philadelphia.

That maintains mostly steady along the I-95 corridor near the city, though it rises to 23 percent in outlying suburbs like Coatesville.

Parts of the Poconos and northern Pennsylvania have closer to a 20 percent chance, with even higher amounts in the Allegheny Mountains.

While Pittsburgh itself has a similar snow chance to much of the region, areas just east and north balloon to 31 percent.

NOAA’s analysis of historical weather patterns from 1991 to 2020 suggests certain parts of the country offer the best odds for a white Christmas, including Alaska, Minnesota, Maine, Upstate New York, the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and virtually all of Idaho. This also holds true for the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains.

In its 2025-2026 winter outlook, NOAA said a third or more of the country will see colder-than-normal temperatures, and that it’ll also be wetter, although that doesn’t necessarily mean there will be more snow. A weak La Niña is expected to continue before a climate-neutral pattern takes over in January.

Most of eastern Pennsylvania, however, is expected to see warmer than normal temperatures, will about an average chance of precipitation.

In its updated forecast, The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts almost all of Pennsylvania "has a chance" of a White Christmas, though the southeastern corner of the state borders a strip of "not a white Christmas" on the map that covers Maryland, Delaware, and most of New Jersey.

The chances for a white Christmas are greatest in the Northeast, Appalachians, lower Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley. Chances aren’t quite as good in the Upper Midwest, High Plains, and the Intermountain regions.

AccuWeather plans to release its 2025 Christmas forecast at mid-month.

The Weather Channel also hasn’t released its forecast, but said in its winter outlook that colder temperatures are expected in much of the country before it warms in January. In Pennsylvania, that forecast calls for a colder than normal December before a warmer than normal January and February take hold.