Poll: PA-01 Congress Race Is A Toss-Up

BUCKS COUNTY, PA — Democrat Christina Finello's campaign on Monday was touting the results of a new poll that shows her in a statistical dead heat versus Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the race for the congressional seat covering Bucks and a sliver of Montgomery County.

The poll, conducted for her campaign by Public Policy Polling, shows Fitzpatrick leading Finello, 4o percent to 38 percent. That is within the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percent. Another 21 percent of the poll's respondents said they were not sure.

"Voters in Bucks and Montgomery counties are looking for a change," Finello's campaign manager, Ali Anderson, said in a news release. "They want a representative they can count on to do what's right for them, not what’s right for Donald Trump.

"Whether it’s giving tax breaks to the rich, or voting against accountability for coronavirus relief funds, we’ve seen time and again that when it matters most, Brian Fitzpatrick sides with Donald Trump. Christina is committed to putting the people of this district first again."

Republicans, meanwhile, called Fitzpatrick more in line with area voters than Finello.

"Brian Fitzpatrick earned the title of most bipartisan member of congress by delivering on his promise to PA-01 voters to always put them first," said Michael McAdams, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. "The last thing folks in this district want is a partisan zealot like Christina Finello, who supports Democrats' socialist agenda focused on abolishing the police, raising taxes and eliminating private health insurance."

Finello, an Ivyland Borough Council member and county courts solicitor, defeated fellow Democrat Skylar Hurwitz in the June 2 primaries, while Fitzpatrick fended off a challenge from businessman Andrew Meehan.

The tight race suggested by Monday's poll comes despite big advantages for Fitzpatrick in terms of name recognition and fundraising.

In the fundraising period that ended May 13, Fitzpatrick had raised more than $2.3 million and had nearly $1.7 million cash on hand, while Finello had raised about $214,000, with about $82,000 on hand.

The PPP poll showed 71 percent of respondents not sure if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Finello, while just 29 percent said they were not sure their opinion of the job Fitzpatrick has done.

In Congress, Fitzpatrick has established himself as something of a moderate, siding with President Donald Trump on votes such as impeachment and taxes, while bucking the party line on issues that have included some gun-safety measures, same-sex marriage and the Affordable Care Act.

But Monday's poll suggest he's not being helped by an overall dislike for Trump among respondents in Bucks and Montgomery counties. Of those polled, former vice president and Democratic nominee Joe Biden held a 56-40 lead over Trump.

Hillary Clinton won the district by two percentage points in 2016. In 2018, Fitzpatrick defeated Democratic challenger Scott Wallace by a vote of 168,841 to 160,098.

PPP surveyed 753 voters living in Pennsylvania's First Congressional District on June 10-11. The survey was conducted with half of calls on land lines and half on cellphones. Of the respondents, 42 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 37 identified as Republicans and 21 percent identified as independents.

Public Policy Polling currently has a "B" grade from FiveThirtyEight, the website that focuses on opinion poll analysis. According to the site's analysis of 423 polls, the company has a very slight Democratic bias and has called 80 percent of races accurately.