North Atlantic Rail delivers $5-for-$1 return, study shows

Completion of the North Atlantic Rail network of high-speed and high-performance lines serving New England and New York would deliver a more than $5-for-$1 return in economic benefits and grow rail’s share of regional travel by 560 percent, a new study by the Steer consulting group shows.

Commissioned by the North Atlantic Rail Alliance, the study shows that completing the $105 billion network centered on a new 100-minute/200 mph high-speed spine from Boston to New York via Hartford and New Haven would deliver up to $586 billion in economic benefits for the region and nation, with the greatest impact if NAR is delivered alongside a transformational economic strategy for the region.

NAR Alliance President Robert D. Yaro said: “No economic development consultancy commands more respect globally than Steer, and their research affirms and quantifies how much the North Atlantic Rail vision would grow jobs, expand housing opportunity, and create a vibrant, integrated market for talent, ideas, and investment throughout our region.”

Based on Steer’s years of intensive research into the economic benefits of high-speed rail in the United Kingdom, Europe, and East Asia, Steer projects that a completed North Atlantic Rail network would:

• Draw 42 million riders annually, increasing rail’s share of regional travel from just 5 percent now to 28 percent when in full operation
• Save travelers time valued at $87 billion over the 60-year period covered by the analysis
• Eliminate 1 million tons per year of CO2 emissions, comparable to taking 220,000 cars off the road or conserving 13,000 tankers’ worth of gasoline
• And drive, based on demonstrated economic benefits in Europe and Asia, $290 billion to $430 billion in transformational productivity improvement over the study period by shortening the distances among people and firms and creating “an agglomeration economy” more closely connecting talent, capital, and investment opportunity in cities across the seven-state region

Steer’s report evaluates an area—New England, Long Island, and metropolitan New York City—that is home to 33 million people, 16 million jobs, and $2.9 trillion in gross domestic product—a region that would rank as the world’s fifth largest economy were it its own country. Steer makes clear that the study’s estimates are “high-level in nature [and] should be understood as order-of-magnitude figures rather than precise estimates.’’ Study data were collected prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts.

North Atlantic Rail Alliance Treasurer Christopher Bergstrom said, “Plans for bringing the Northeast Corridor, including the New Haven and Hartford Lines in Connecticut, into a state of good repair are good and worth pursuing, but only when they are connected to the North Atlantic Rail network do they have the potential to become economically transformational. In a time when innovation is critical to economic growth, NAR can create high-speed connections among powerhouse research universities and laboratories throughout our region: Harvard, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Brown, Yale, Stony Brook University, the state universities of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, the colleges of Worcester, the Brookhaven National Labs, life sciences clusters, and many more.’’

Steer’s report states: “The North Atlantic region is a vibrant economic and cultural center. The region’s economy spans a range of sectors and has internationally competitive advantages in knowledge-based industries, uniquely positioning it as a growth center for innovation and the green economy. Despite these strengths, the region’s potential is constrained by a transportation network that is not equipped to support 21st century economic development and post-COVID recovery. Economic activity is overly concentrated in NYC and Boston, which has led to high cost of living and higher costs to do business. Secondary cities along the corridor are home to knowledge centers, universities, and key industries but do not have connectivity to larger economic centers to sustain strong economic growth.”

Steer adds: “The NAR program will link cities and communities across the region, which in turn will offer reduced travel times that lead to direct benefits to travelers, environmental and health and safety benefits due to mode shift from higher-impact modes (auto and air), and productivity gains due to decreased travel times between economic centers. The result is a connected Northeast megaregion, where residents, employees, and businesses have access to a wider set of industries and opportunities. Larger labor pools both increases opportunity and innovation, enabling smaller cities in the corridor to grow substantially.”

As reported in Patch last month, the U.S. House of Representatives approved creation of a North Atlantic Rail Interstate Compact in its INVEST in America infrastructure legislation. While both the House and Senate have approved several billion dollars to upgrade the Northeast Corridor, North Atlantic Rail has noted that the NAR Network is the "only plan on the table today" to advance true high-speed rail between Boston, Providence, Hartford, New Haven, Long Island, and New York City.
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ABOUT NORTH ATLANTIC RAIL
North Atlantic Rail is a $105 billion plan for a new network of high-speed and high-performance intercity and regional rail service connecting smaller cities throughout all six New England states and New York, including a new 100-minute rail service from Boston to New York via Providence, Hartford, New Haven, and Long Island. North Atlantic Rail's vision is to drive jobs and economic opportunity throughout the region with a 21st century rail-enabled growth strategy, taking on climate change with a more sustainable, resilient, efficient rail network, and ensuring the region gets its fair share of federal infrastructure investment. The North Atlantic Rail Alliance is a 501(c)3 non-profit organization backed by a growing coalition of foundations, unions, and civic groups to advocate for the NAR Network.

ABOUT STEER
Working across cities, infrastructure and transport, Steer is a consultancy that combines commercial, economic, technical and planning expertise to find powerful answers to our clients’ complex questions. Based in London, Steer has offices in Boston, Brooklyn, and other cities in 13 nations around the world.