Will RI See A White Christmas? Here’s What The Odds Say

While meteorologists can’t yet predict with any certainty whether Rhode Islanders will have a white Christmas this year, current predictions of a cold December suggest chances may be better than historical averages.

It doesn’t have to snow on the big day to qualify as a white Christmas; if there’s an inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, the National Weather Service counts it. And with cold in the forecast, snow already on the ground in many parts of the country could stick around.

See also: Home For The Holidays? Take In These 10 Rhode Island Events

Past weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests the probability of a white Christmas is about 41-50% in Rhode Island.

NOAA’s analysis of historical weather patterns from 1991 to 2020 suggests certain parts of the country offer the best odds for a white Christmas, including Alaska, Minnesota, Maine, Upstate New York, the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and virtually all of Idaho. This also holds true for the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains.

See also: Christmas Wonderland Getaways: 5 RI Hotels For Holiday Magic

In its 2025-2026 winter outlook, NOAA said a third or more of the country will see colder-than-normal temperatures, and that it’ll also be wetter, although that doesn’t necessarily mean there will be more snow. A weak La Niña is expected to continue before a climate-neutral pattern takes over in January.

Rhode Island is expected to be 33-40% warmer than normal.

See also: Holiday Lights Spectacular Returns to Roger Williams Park Zoo

In its updated forecast, The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts Rhode Island will not have a White Christmas.

The chances for a white Christmas are greatest in the Northeast, Appalachians, lower Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley. Chances aren’t quite as good in the Upper Midwest, High Plains, and the Intermountain regions.

See also: When Does Santa Arrive At Shopping Malls Across RI?

AccuWeather plans to release its 2025 Christmas forecast at mid-month. The Weather Channel also hasn’t released its forecast, but said in its winter outlook that colder temperatures are expected in much of the country before it warms in January.

That goes for Rhode Island as well.

See also: Rhode Islanders Will Pay 6th Highest Heating Bills In Nation This Winter: Study