How A Strong El Niño Winter Could Affect Rhode Island Utility Bills

RHODE ISLAND — Residents of Rhode Island who heat their homes with natural gas can expect to pay less this winter than last, according to a new winter fuels forecast released Wednesday by the government.

Natural gas prices are about 40 percent lower than at this time last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its report. Electricity and propane prices are expected to remain stable, but people who use heating oil, which is used extensively in the Northeast, are expected to pay more.

The approximately 60.1 million households nationwide, including 52.8 percent of homes in Rhode Island, that burn natural gas as their primary source of healing fuel can expect to pay an average of about $601 to heat their homes this winter. That's down about 21 percent from last winter, the EIA projected.

In the Northeast, natural gas customers can expect to pay an average of about $761 to heat their homes from November through March, down 18 percent from last winter.

Also, according to the projections for the Northeast, electricity costs are projected to increase 4 percent, for an average of $1,465 during the five-month period. Propane costs are expected to increase 1 percent, for an average of $1,696 over the winter.

The projection is driven by the supply and demand for winter heating fuels and inventories, but also influenced by weather. Various winter weather outlooks say a strong El Niño climate pattern could bring more snow to parts of the country, but it could also keep temperatures mild.

Heating oil costs are projected to be up 8 percent this winter, for an average cost nationwide of $1,851 over the winter.

The El Niño effect is good news for people living in the western U.S., where temperatures are expected to be warmer this winter than last, when temperatures were much colder than usual. They should pay less overall, regardless of the type of fuel they use.

The average demand for heating fuels exceeds supplies, but both gas and propane inventories were above five-year averages going into winters, the Energy Information Administration said, but inventories of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil, were “well below” average.