Mild Weather but More Clouds than Sun for Thanksgiving Weekend

By Jim Laurie

Before I begin, I want to wish all of our readers a Happy Thanksgiving! It seems we have been feeling more like winter around the Ocean State the last few days. Morning lows were 24 degrees Tuesday morning in Providence, and 25 Wednesday morning. However, with increasing moisture and southerly winds moving over Southern New England, we will see milder weather, but not as much sunshine.

Right now, high pressure passing over Nova Scotia is bringing dry weather to much of the east coast. The high will continue to slowly drift eastward, but maintain a strong influence on our weather. The noticeable difference this evening will be the slightly increasing dewpoint, as winds from the southeast and south helps bring moisture into the lower levels of the atmosphere. The moisture will help create increasing clouds, which will help keep our temperatures warmer. I am forecasting a low of 37 for the city of Providence for this evening.

Keeping the low level moisture and southerly winds will help us see milder temperatures through the holiday. Despite just some partial sunshine tomorrow, high temperatures across the state will reach the middle to upper 50’s. But, keep both hands on the wheel Thursday afternoon if you are driving, as we may see wind gusts increase to 20-25 mph at times. As we head into Thursday night, cloudy conditions will remain, but temperatures will only fall into the middle 40’s. However, for those early morning Black Friday shoppers, please be careful driving, as there may be patchy fog after 3 a.m.

Any fog will burn off by the time the door busters ran out, around 9 a.m. Friday morning. We will continue to see partly sunny skies, and high temperatures may reach 60 degrees. We will continue to have mostly cloudy skies through the day, with clouds lowering in the atmosphere. This is due to a cold front moving further east, which will help bring more moisture to the higher levels of the atmosphere. We should see the cold front pass through Southern New England by 3 a.m. Saturday morning. Both the American and European models predict we will see precipitation. At this time, I am forecasting showers between 4 a.m. and 4 p.m. on Saturday. Also, this will be a cold rain, as high temperatures will only rise into the middle to upper 40’s.

Skies will slowly clear Saturday night, and with light winds and starlit skies, temperatures will fall into the lower 30’s. A weak high pressure ridge from the west will provide us with mostly sunny skies for Sunday, with high temperatures in the middle 40’s. The weather remains the same into Monday afternoon, before the models begin to disagree on the next weather system.

High pressure ridging will begin to break down late Monday afternoon, as a low pressure system in the Central Plains begins to develop. At the moment, the European model is more aggressive in intensifying the low during Monday. Also, the European model is giving us higher rainfall estimates. Another model from the United Kingdom agrees more with the European model’s solution than the American model’s weaker, slower, and less intense low pressure system. I will continue to monitor the situation, and update you over the weekend on which model is doing a better job at forecasting for this low. For now, we could see light rain from early Tuesday morning right through the overnight hours of next Wednesday night. High temperatures will reach the upper 40’s to lower 50’s for Tuesday and next Wednesday.