New Social Security Analysis Spells Trouble For Seniors In 2026: 'Seniors Should Be Concerned'

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Millions of Social Security recipients are bracing for what 2026 may bring in terms of their benefits checks and how inflation will affect them.

A new analysis was published on Wednesday, June 11, detailing what cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security beneficiaries could look like next year.

The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group, warned last month that 2026 could bring the lowest COLA for retirees since 2021 — just 2.4 percent, down from the already modest 2.5 percent adjustment for 2025.

On Wednesday, the league predicted that the 2026 COLA would be 2.5 percent, inching up slightly from last month. The group's estimation has increased for the past four months.

The Senior Citizens League says its estimates are based on data from the Consumer Price Index, Federal Reserve interest rates, and the national unemployment rate, all of which are factored into a new forecast each month.

What's more, the advocacy group is sounding the alarm about a hiring freeze reported at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has forced the Consumer Price Index program to cut back on the number of businesses where it measures prices, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Due to a shortage of workers, the agency says it used a less accurate method for estimating prices.

This could spell major problems for Social Security beneficiaries and the COLA, the Senior Citizens League said Wednesday.

“Inaccurate or unreliable data in the CPI dramatically increases the likelihood that seniors receive a COLA that’s lower than actual inflation, which can cost seniors thousands of dollars over the course of their retirement,” said the league's Executive Director Shannon Benton.

The group warns that a cost-of-living adjustment that comes in under inflation could set back seniors for the rest of their retirement.

“Seniors should be concerned as inflation continues to tick upward," Benton said. "TSCL’s research shows that there’s a serious disconnect between the inflation the government reports and the inflation that seniors experience every day. If the government tells us that prices are rising faster, it’s likely that seniors are already feeling the crunch.”

Last month, the group said the minimally increasing COLA estimations are further evidence that Social Security payments are failing to keep pace with inflation. According to Benton, the data backs up what the organization has been hearing from older Americans for years.

Last month, the organization emphasized the broader financial landscape for seniors in its report:

• 73 percent of American seniors rely on Social Security for at least half their income.
• 39 percent say Social Security makes up their entire income, according to TSCL’s research.
• Seniors spend more than $1,000 per month on healthcare costs, while over half live on less than $2,000 per month.
• 94 percent of survey respondents said the 2025 COLA adjustment was too low.
• TSCL warns that continued lagging COLAs could push millions of seniors into poverty.