Rain, Storms Lash VA As Tropical Storm Humberto Forms: See Possible Impacts

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across Northern Virginia on Thursday as forecasters closely watch the track of Tropical Storm Humberto, which will determine the location and severity of impacts to the U.S. East Coast early next week.

A cold front pushing through the state is expected to bring showers and storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts to parts of Northern Virginia on Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

Some storms could be strong to severe, mainly between 4 and 8 p.m. and east of U.S. Route 15, the National Weather Service said.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center placed the region in a Level 1 out of 5 risk zone for severe storms. In addition to heavy rain and lightning, there’s also a chance of an isolated tornado, especially east and northeast of Interstate 95.

Following some overnight showers, sunny and dry conditions are expected to return to parts of the state on Friday, although some showers will linger in the far southern areas.

Virginians should enjoy any sunshine on Friday before rain chances return this weekend.

"Both days look mostly cloudy with scattered showers, but Saturday will probably be wetter than Sunday," according to The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang. "Neither day should be a complete washout, but radar watching may be required. Rain totals look to be higher in the south and east of the region vs. the north and west."

Tropical Storm Humberto Forms

As Virginians weather this soggy week, forecasters are closely monitoring two tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean, both of which could impact portions of the U.S. East Coast in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Humberto formed Wednesday afternoon over the Atlantic and is expected to become a hurricane in the next day or two before rapidly strengthening into a major hurricane over the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As it moves north-northwest through the Atlantic, Humberto is likely to produce dangerous rip currents impacting beaches across the U.S. East Coast starting this weekend, forecasters said.

At the same time, a tropical wave (Invest 94L) in the northern Caribbean could develop in the next couple of days and potentially threaten the Bahamas and the southeastern United States early next week.

The exact track and strength of the tropical wave after it likely becomes a tropical rainstorm, depression or named storm will determine the location and severity of impacts to the U.S. coast early next week, AccuWeather forecasters said in a Thursday update.

According to AccuWeather, there are two scenarios in play when it comes to the track and strength of Invest 94L:

The first scenario predicts the storm will have lower wind intensity and be guided east toward a stronger Humberto. This may cause the storm to become completely enveloped and absorbed by Humberto, or dance around it in a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara Effect.

The Fujiwhara Effect happens “when two hurricanes spinning in the same direction pass close enough to each other, they begin an intense dance around their common center,” according to the National Weather Service. “If one hurricane is a lot stronger than the other, the smaller one will orbit it and eventually come crashing into its vortex to be absorbed.”

In that scenario, the impacts to the United States would likely be limited to just rough surf and a risk of rip currents along the East Coast, AccuWeather forecasters said.

A second scenario would result in a stronger storm tracking more directly toward the southeast U.S. coast early next week, AccuWeather said. In this case, the storm would remain separate from Humberto and would likely result in more direct rain and wind impacts, especially in the Carolinas.

AccuWeather hurricane experts said they believe scenario two is becoming more likely.

“The forecast for the tropics this week is complex. We do not see two storms develop this close in proximity very often," said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.