Possible Subtropical Storm Could Bring Drenching Rain To VA: See Latest Track, Forecast

VIRGINIA — A tropical storm warning was issued late Thursday morning for the area from North Carolina northward to Delaware, with a low pressure area expected to bring the potential for "life-threatening storm surge" to portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The National Weather Service said a tropical storm warning is in effect for the next 36 hours in coastal areas, including Chincoteague, Wallops Island, Melfa, Accomack, Hampton/Poquoson, Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, Northampton, and Virginia Beach.

A storm surge watch was issued from Surf City, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point.

"On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the warning area Friday night and early Saturday," the National Hurricane Center said.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. When a storm generates maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph it has reached tropical storm status.

A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the warning areas during the next 48 hours.

NWS forecasters said 1 to 3 feet of water above ground will be possible within surge-prone areas from Friday evening until Sunday morning.

Drenching rainfall will spread across a large area of the East Coast on Friday and into the weekend from the low pressure system that forecasters said could become the next named tropical storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

"That's a mix of a low associated with fronts, but also with some qualities of tropical storms. The National Hurricane Center issues advisories for these subtropical systems as they do for tropical depressions and storms," The Weather Channel said Thursday.

The next named storms in the Atlantic hurricane season will be named Ophelia and then Philippe.

The mixing of the low pressure system with the fronts is forecast to lead to strong, gusty winds, particularly at the beaches, in the Mid-Atlantic states from Friday into the weekend.

"These winds will also whip up some high surf, dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding," The Weather Channel said. "Coastal flooding could be moderate to locally major at high tide in the Virginia Tidewater region on Saturday. Minor to moderate coastal flooding could extend as far south as the Outer Banks of North Carolina to as far north as the Jersey Shore."

Even if the low pressure system does not become an organized tropical system, it will bring rain and gusty winds to the Mid-Atlantic, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys. "The storm is likely to bring gusty winds and rounds of heavy rain to much of the East Coast," he said.

Rain will likely first affect the Carolinas and parts of southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula on Friday.

The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang said there are still questions about the details of the storm, "but rain appears most likely Friday night into Saturday, with confidence in soaking downpours increasing the farther east you go."

Rain showers could linger into the second half of the weekend and even potentially into early Monday, according to the Capital Weather Gang.

"Our area really NEEDS the rain. Rainfall deficits are running between 6" and 11" from the Blue Ridge to the Bay since the first of the year," NBC4 meteorologist Chuck Bell said Thursday. The forecast for rain starting Friday evening and ending Saturday night is expected to help reduce the deficit, bringing at least 2 inches of rain to most of the area.

"Get your gutters and drains cleared right away," Bell said.

Here is a look at the National Weather Service forecast through the weekend in Northern Virginia:

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Friday night: A chance of showers, mainly after 3 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. East wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Saturday: Showers likely, mainly after 9 a.m. Cloudy, with a high near 63. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Saturday night: Showers likely, mainly before 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 58.

Sunday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 68.

Sunday night: A chance of showers before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Tuesday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 71.