Strong El Niño Signals Snowy Winter Ahead In VA: See Forecast

VIRGINIA — A snowy winter due to a strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean seems likely this year for much of Virginia, according to a new long-range forecast.

AccuWeather and other long-range weather prediction services call for a snowier and colder winter ahead with the arrival of El Niño, a climate cycle that results in the unusual warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean waters. El Niño can have a range of effects, from heavy precipitation in some parts of the world and droughts in others, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

According to AccuWeather's 2023-24 winter outlook, there could be multiple nor'easters from Boston to Philadelphia that could also affect Virginia in January and February, dumping inches of snow compared to the miniscule amount that the DC region saw over the weak 2022-23 winter.

The only measurable snow in the Washington, D.C., region recorded last season was half an inch in February, according to the National Weather Service. Trace amounts of snow were noted in December, January, and March. The yearly average snowfall amount for Northern Virginia is 15 inches.

"The window for snow-producing nor'easters will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and beyond," AccuWeather predicted for the 2023-24 winter.

AccuWeather long-range meteorologists are predicting 18-26 inches in New York City and 16-24 inches in Philadelphia and further south in total for the coming winter, which is around the historical average.

"An early-season nor'easter can't be ruled out either as the ingredients for a snowstorm may come together sometime in November," AccuWeather continued.

During El Niño winters, warm water moves closer to the west coast of South America, pushing the Pacific jet stream farther north. That trend allows moist air to enter the Southeast bringing heavy rain. When those storms move into the colder climate in the Northeast, the rain can turn to snow.

The AccuWeather prediction somewhat aligns with the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, which as of this week was forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures for part of the state in December, January and February. Those three months are leaning toward above-normal precipitation, according to the weather service.

And, the Farmer's Almanac said in its extended 2023-24 winter forecast that the Northeast region is in for plenty of winter rain, sleet, and snow.

"For those of you living along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston, who saw a lack of wintry precipitation last winter, you should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with," said the Farmers' Almanac.