VCU Poll Shows McAuliffe, Youngkin Governor's Race Tightening

RICHMOND, VA —A poll released Tuesday by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University indicated that Virginia's gubernatorial race is tightening, as are the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

In the poll, released just a week before Tuesday's election, 41 percent of likely voters supported Democrat and former governor Terry McAuliffe, while 38 percent supported Republican Glenn Youngkin, a former co-CEO of a prominent private equity firm.

Just last month, McAuliffe led the Youngkin 43 percent to 34 percent among likely voters, according to the Wilder School.

The school said its most recent poll featured landline and telephone interviews of a representative sample of 808 adults living in Virginia conducted from Oct. 9-21. It had a margin of error of 6.44 percent when considering likely voters.

Breaking down the poll numbers even further, the Wilder School highlighted the independent and discontent voters it believes might decide the election.

According to the poll, 37 percent of independent voters identified with Youngkin, and 31 percent with McAuliffe, which represents a six-point increase for Youngkin and six-point decrease for McAuliffe since September.

Meanwhile, 10 percent of likely voters remain unhappy with either candidate, the poll found. Of those discontent voters, 11 percent identify as Democrat, while 8 percent identify as Republican.

"(This brings) into question the impact that third-party candidate Princess Blanding might play on election day," the people who compile the Wilder poll concluded.

From a regional standpoint, Youngkin made the biggest recent gains in Tidewater, where he now leads McAuliffe 38 percent to 34 percent, according to the poll. This is a seven-point improvement for Youngkin in the last month.

Youngkin, the poll found, also has taken the lead in the northwest region of the state, now leading McAuliffe 41 percent to 37 percent in that area. Youngkin also has held his lead — 51 percent to 30 percent — in the western part of the state.

McAuliffe, however, holds a similarly sizable advantage in Northern Virginia — 53 percent to 31 percent — and a 43 percent to 35 percent advantage in south central Virginia, according to the poll.

The Wilder School found that voters believe the top issues facing Virginia's next governor are: the economy (27 percent), public schools (20 percent) and COVID-19 (19 percent).

Voters say they trust Youngkin more than McAuliffe to handle the economy — 48 percent to 40 percent — and trust McAuliffe more than Youngkin to handle public schools -45 percent to 42 percent — and on COVID — 45 percent to 39 percent.

The VCU poll also found the race for lieutenant governor tightening, with Republican Winsome Sears closing the gap on Democrat Hala Ayala last month.

After having a three-point lead in September, Ayala now has support of 36 percent of likely voters, while Sears has support of 35 percent of likely voters.

The race for attorney general between incumbent Democrat Mark Herring and Republican challenger Jason Miyares also has narrowed. Herring still leads 39 percent to 35 percent.

"(But) Miyares has gained ground in each of the last three months, while Herring has lost ground," the Wilder School noted.

As the lieutenant governor and attorney general races tighten, the sizable percentage of discontent voters in each could have a significant impact on the outcome, according to the Wilder School.

The VCU poll found that the race for control of the Virginia House of Delegates also is close before all 100 seats are up for election next week. Likely voters slightly prefer Democrat party control in the House over Republican party control 43 percent to 42 percent. But Republicans have gained three points since last month.

Virginians interviewed for the poll also were asked for their opinion on outgoing Gov. Ralph Northam, and only 46 percent said they approved of the job he is doing, a five-point drop since August.

L. Douglas Wilder, Virginia's 66th governor and namesake for the school of government affairs and public policy at VCU, offered his thoughts on the poll.

"(It) reflects a tightening of the race for the three top offices," Wilder said. "The number of voters unhappy with either candidate for governor and the decrease in Northam's approval rating is noteworthy."