If Trump Is Nominee, a Third of Virginia GOP Voters to Defect: Poll

If Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee for president, don't look for any loyalty from Republicans in Virginia, according to a new survey.

A survey by Christopher Newport University says that one-third or 29 percent of Republican voters surveyed said they would vote for the Democratic nominee, sit out the election or vote for a third-party candidate.

Those are the scenarios that could play out in the Commonwealth if New York billionaire Trump wins the Republican nomination, according to a new poll out by CNU.

“We found a real loyalty gap,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center, in an announcement about the results. “If Donald Trump turns out to be the Republican nominee, it’s clear that a very significant proportion of Republican voters will either defect or stay home. But it looks like most Democrats – even those who backed Bernie Sanders in the March primary – would support Clinton.”

The university's Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy conducted a survey and it shows that one-third of Virginia Republicans will take their votes elsewhere if Trump is the nominee.

Trump has 743 delegates and need 1,237 delegates to win the nomination. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is hoping to gain on Trump and currently has 517 delegates. Ohio Gov. John Kasich trails in third place with 143 delegates but does well in general election matchup polls. All are campaigning in New York, Trump's home state, where the Republican primary will be held Tuesday, April 19. A new poll out by Monmouth shows Trump with 52 percent of the vote in New York.

Key findings in the center shows:

• Clinton leads Trump 44% to 35% among likely Virginia voters.
• 90% of Virginia Democratic primary voters say they will support Clinton in November, while only 67% of Republican primary voters say they will support Trump.
• 29% of Republican primary voters say they will vote for the other party’s candidate, vote for a 3rd party candidate or not vote at all. Among Democratic primary voters, that number is 9%.
• Young voters, especially Millennials who have been strong for Clinton’s Democratic primary rival, Bernie Sanders, would stick with Clinton over Trump by 22 points.
• The prospect of a brokered GOP convention sharply divides Virginia Republicans. A majority (57%) of Virginia Republicans likely to vote in the general election oppose using a brokered convention to prevent Trump from becoming the nominee, while 36% support such a move.
• The gender gap strongly favors Clinton. Women voters prefer Clinton to Trump by 23 points. Men prefer Trump by 6 points.

Read the full CNU report here.

Photo by Gage Skidmore