Delta Surge Peaks In Virginia As Majority Of Health Districts Report Declines: Experts

VIRGINIA — The number of COVID-19 cases in Virginia has entered a sustained period of decline, with 20 out of the state’s 35 health districts reporting declining positive case numbers, according to the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute and the Virginia Department of Health.

Under the current course, the researchers project positive COVID-19 cases have already peaked. However, scenarios show there is still potential for a large holiday surge later this year, similar to the one experienced last year, the researchers said in their latest report released Friday.

“The Delta wave has caused only about 40 percent of the cases experienced during last winter's surge — at least so far,” the researchers said. “Right now, the Delta wave appears to have peaked. However, the sharpest growth last year occurred over the holidays, beginning around Thanksgiving.”

The big question right now is whether Virginia will experience a repeat of last winter's surge with the Delta variant. “This largely depends on whether Virginians choose to get vaccinated, including boosters when eligible, and practice other prevention measures,” the UVA and VDH researchers said.

Average new daily cases reported in Virginia continue to decline, falling to a seven-day average of 2,748 on Monday after peaking at 3,689 cases on Sept. 14. The seven-day average on Monday was the lowest level since Aug. 25, according to the VDH.

Monday's seven-day average is still far greater than the year-ago average of 818 daily cases. And the lower year-ago average was pre-vaccine — about 80 days before the first COVID-19 vaccines began to be administered in Virginia.

The VDH reports that 9,396,813 PCR tests have been conducted in Virginia as of Monday, with an 8.5 percent positivity rate from those tests over the latest seven-day period, down from 11.1 percent positivity rate reported on Sept. 7, the highest seven-day average rate since the current Delta variant surge began in early July.

As of Monday, 60.5 percent of Virginia's population is fully vaccinated, while 72 percent of people 18 and older are fully vaccinated, according to the VDH.

A child under the age of 10 died in eastern Virginia last Wednesday from COVID-19, the second fatal juvenile case last week in the region, the Associated Press reported. More than 1,000 children in Virginia have been hospitalized with the coronavirus.

COVID-19 Deaths Surpass 1918 Flu

Last week, the number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States surpassed the number of deaths caused by the 1918 influenza pandemic, making the current pandemic the deadliest infectious disease in U.S. history.

Like COVID-19, the 1918 flu was a respiratory disease, and many of the same measures that prevent flu prevent COVID-19.

However, the average age of death from the 1918 flu was 28, while COVID-19 deaths have been concentrated among seniors so far, although a growing number of children have died from the disease.

The flu tends to spread by contact with droplets, while the evidence suggests aerosol transmission is important with COVID-19.

“COVID-19 is occurring in a far different environment as well. In 1918, there was no vaccine or treatment available for the flu,” the UVA and VDH researchers said. “In 2021, modern hospitals equipped with ICU units and ventilators have saved many lives, and a COVID-19 vaccine that drastically reduces the risk of infection, severe disease, and death is widely available.”

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