These 2 NoVA Jurisdictions Are Facing 'High' COVID-19 Spread: CDC

VIRGINIA — The vast majority of Virginia is now experiencing the highest rate of spread of the coronavirus, with Arlington County and Prince William County leading the way in community transmission in Northern Virginia, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The rest of Northern Virginia has yet to reach the highest level of community transmission. The largest jurisdiction in the state, Fairfax County, is currently experiencing "substantial" community spread of the coronavirus, one step below the seriousness of the "high" level in Arlington and Prince William counties.

Loudoun County and the city of Alexandria also are experiencing "substantial" spread. This is according to the most recent data available, which is last week's data from Aug. 9 to Aug. 15, according to the CDC.

All of the health departments in the Richmond and Hampton Roads area are experiencing "high" community transmission of the coronavirus, the worst level of community spread.

The CDC says fully vaccinated people should wear masks indoors in public if they live in an area with "substantial" or "high" transmission of the virus. That includes all counties in Virginia, except for Richmond County in the Northern Neck and Bath County in western Virginia, which are experiencing moderate community transmission.

Gov. Ralph Northam already announced all Virginia schoolchildren, teachers and staff will start off the school year wearing masks every day.

Read more: Masks Required At All Virginia Schools: Northam

The CDC recommends universal indoor masking by all students (age 2 and older), staff, teachers and visitors to K-12 schools, regardless of vaccination status.

Those who aren't fully vaccinated are urged to wear masks in public no matter what the level of transmission is, according to the CDC.

The delta variant of the coronavirus continues to drive case rates higher in the U.S., especially in places with low vaccination rates.

The delta variant has taken over and is causing a spike of new cases and hospitalizations in Virginia, according to the latest analysis by the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. All health districts are showing growth, with 33 of 35 districts now "surging," using UVA modeling terminology.

The Fairfax and Central Shenandoah health districts are the only ones in the state experiencing only "slow growth" in the spread of the coronavirus, according to UVA.

"Case rates in Florida and Louisiana have already exceeded the peaks of last winter. UVA modeling continues to suggest that Virginia could possibly do the same in a few weeks time," UVA experts said in their latest report, released Friday.

Research suggests the delta variant causes more severe and longer illness than prior strains, the UVA researchers said. "Vaccines are very effective at preventing serious illness and death," UVA said. "However, indoor mask usage is critical to reducing local transmission rates during this surge."

COVID-19 vaccination rates are still below herd immunity levels in Virginia. If the delta variant continues to spread, cases could possibly peak at levels higher than previous January peaks, according to the UVA researchers.

"To lessen the projected peak, we must give vaccines time to have an impact. If vaccination rates pick up, the model estimates that over 60,000 cases could be avoided," the researchers said.

"It doesn’t take a complex mathematical model to see where we may be headed. The Delta variant is highly contagious, vaccination rates fall short of herd immunity levels, and community transmission is high," the researchers added.

Dozens of other states, including neighbors like North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia are already experiencing this. Florida, which is only slightly behind Virginia in percent of fully vaccinated residents — 49.9 percent vs. 55.4 percent — has already exceeded the highest weekly case rate it experienced during the winter.

Models from UVA, as well as those of other academic labs, suggest Virginia will likely follow the trajectory of these other states and experience a large surge in the coming weeks, the researchers warned.

Even with the threat of another wave, COVID-19 vaccines remain highly protective against severe illness and death. The Mayo Clinic found that while breakthrough cases can occur more frequently with the delta variant, the vaccines are still very effective in protecting people against hospitalization and severe illness.

In Virginia, more than 97 percent of recent hospitalizations and 98 percent of recent deaths have been among those who were not fully vaccinated. Studies have also shown that in general, those who are infected after vaccination have lower viral loads, fewer symptoms and clear the infection a few days sooner than those who were not vaccinated.

The vaccines also seem to produce a stronger antibody response against the delta variant than is found in those with immunity gained from a prior infection, according to the researchers.

All U.S. states are now classified as dealing with high transmission of the virus, with the exception of six states: Maryland, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Vermont. Those six states are currently experiencing substantial transmission.

Transmission levels are determined either by new cases per 100,000 residents in the last seven days or the percentage of coronavirus tests that come back positive; the higher category determines the transmission level.

Thresholds

New cases per 100,000 in past seven days:

• Low: 0-9.99
• Moderate: 10-49.99
• Substantial: 50-99.99
• High: >100

Positive test rate:

• Low: <5
• Moderate: 5-7.99
• Substantial: 8-9.99
• High: >10