VA Election 2021: McAuliffe, Youngkin Nearly Tied In Final Poll

RICHMOND, VA — Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) holds a slim one-point edge over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the race for governor, according to a final poll released ahead of Election Day on Tuesday.

McAuliffe leads Youngkin 49 percent to 48 percent among likely voters in Virginia in the survey released by the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University on Oct. 27.

The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percent. In this virtual tie, Liberation Party candidate Princess Blanding’s 1-percent share of the vote could loom large, according to the Wason Center for Civic Leadership.

As Election Day nears, Republicans are increasingly more enthusiastic about voting, with 80 percent of Republican likely voters indicating they are very enthusiastic, compared to 65 percent of Democrats, the survey found.

The Republicans’ 15-point enthusiasm advantage was only 6 percentage points in the Wason Center for Civic Leadership’s Oct. 8 survey — 61 percent compared to 55 percent.

Throughout the general election, McAuliffe has tried to link Youngkin to former President Donald Trump, hoping the state's voters, who overwhelmingly voted for Joe Biden in 2020, will reject Youngkin a year later.

Youngkin, who retired as co-CEO of the private equity firm The Carlyle Group in 2020, embraced Trump during the Republican nominating process earlier this year. But since becoming the party's nominee, he has tried to keep his distance from Trump without alienating the former president's followers.

The political newcomer latched onto well-organized campaigns by conservative groups to target public school systems that opted to use remote learning during the worst part of the pandemic. In recent months, Youngkin aligned himself with these same conservative groups' attacks on elected school boards.

SEE ALSO: VCU Poll Shows McAuliffe, Youngkin Governor's Race Tightening

For lieutenant governor, Democrat Hala Ayala has a 1-point lead over Republican Winsome Sears, 49 percent to 48 percent, with 4 percent undecided, according to the survey.

Seeking a third term, Virginia Attorney General Mark Herring narrowly leads Republican Jason Miyares 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent undecided, Wason Center for Civic Leadership survey shows.

In late August, McAuliffe had a 9-point lead in the survey, which then shrank to 4 points in early October and now stands at 1 point.

The Wason Center for Civic Leadership said it sees a large gender gap, with male voters shifting toward Republican candidates and women moving toward Democratic candidates.

Youngkin's support is currently driven by white voters — 58 percent for Youngkin versus 39 percent for McAuliffe — and voters from southern and southwestern Virginia — 65 percent for Youngkin versus 33 percent for McAuliffe.

According to a poll released last week by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University, McAuliffe holds a sizable advantage in Northern Virginia — 53 percent to 31 percent.

The Wilder School found voters believe the top issues facing Virginia's next governor are the economy (27 percent), public schools (20 percent) and COVID-19 (19 percent).

Biden won Virginia by 10 percentage points over Trump in last year's general election for president. Though Virginia has long been viewed as a purple state, Democrats have had a strong run in recent years, and Republicans have not won statewide since 2009.

Over 1.1 million out of the state’s 5.9 million registered voters cast a ballot early this year, according to state data published by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project. That number marks a dramatic increase compared with the 195,634 early votes cast during the last gubernatorial cycle before voting reforms were instituted.

On Tuesday, polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.

RELATED:

• Meet The Candidate: Princess Blanding For Virginia Governor
• Meet The Candidate: Winsome Sears For VA Lieutenant Governor
• Meet The Candidate: Jason Miyares For Virginia Attorney General