Will VA See A White Christmas? Here’s What The Odds Say

While meteorologists can’t yet predict with any certainty whether Virginians will have a white Christmas this year, current predictions of a cold December suggest chances may be better than historical averages.

It doesn’t have to snow on the big day to qualify as a white Christmas; if there’s an inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, the National Weather Service counts it. And with cold in the forecast, snow already on the ground in many parts of the country could stick around.

Past weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests the probability of a white Christmas is about 11 to 25 percent in the Washington, D.C. metro.

NOAA’s analysis of historical weather patterns from 1991 to 2020 suggests certain parts of the country offer the best odds for a white Christmas, including Alaska, Minnesota, Maine, Upstate New York, the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and virtually all of Idaho. This also holds true for the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains.

In its 2025-2026 winter outlook, NOAA said a third or more of the country will see colder-than-normal temperatures, and that it’ll also be wetter, although that doesn’t necessarily mean there will be more snow. A weak La Niña is expected to continue before a climate-neutral pattern takes over in January.

In Virginia, temperatures actually have a 33 to 40 percent chance of being above normal this winter. Meanwhile, precipitation in most parts of the Commonwealth will be below normal.

In its updated forecast, The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a White Christmas in most parts of the state, including Northern Virginia. Meanwhile, the southeastern portion of the state is unlikely to see a white Christmas.

The chances for a white Christmas are greatest in the Northeast, Appalachians, lower Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley. Chances aren’t quite as good in the Upper Midwest, High Plains, and the Intermountain regions.

AccuWeather plans to release its 2025 Christmas forecast at mid-month. The Weather Channel also hasn’t released its forecast, but said in its winter outlook that colder temperatures are expected in much of the country before it warms in January.

In Virginia, temperatures will be slightly below normal this December, according to The Weather Channel.

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