WA Hospital Occupancy Likely To Remain High Through Fall: DOH

OLYMPIA, WA — A mix of good and bad news Thursday from the Washington State Department of Health, who say that, while COVID-19 case counts and transmission rates are improving, hospital occupancy is likely to remain high for some time to come.

While the prospects of long-term improvement are good, the DOH says that, unfortunately, hospitals are likely to remain stressed in the short term.

"When hospitals operate at high capacities, people may experience longer waits for urgent or emergent care, canceled surgeries or procedures, or transfers to hospitals further away from home than usual," the agency said.

According to the DOH's COVID-19 modeling and surveillance situation report, Washington averaged 195 hospitalizations per day the week ending Aug. 29. That declined to 115 the week ending Oct. 8. Meanwhile, COVID-19 patients took up about 17 percent of beds in early October, versus a quarter of beds in early September. Despite that 8 percent decline, total hospital occupancy has consistently remained over 90 percent, and the DOH says that is projected to continue through the fall.

Other findings from the DOH's latest modeling include:

COVID-19 transmission declined in September. As of Oct. 2, the DOH estimates the virus' reproductive number is around 0.83. Any transmission rate below 1 means the virus is in decline.

COVID-19 prevalence also declined in September. Modeling found that roughly one in every 244 Washingtonians had a COVID-19 infection in September, about half of the previous estimate for August.

Health officials say the improvements can likely be credited to an increase in vaccination rates, mask use, and social distancing.

“We’re hopeful that the declines we’ve seen in the last few weeks will continue, but that will only be possible if vaccination rates continue to increase and we continue wearing masks,” said Scott Lindquist, MD, MPH, state epidemiologist for communicable diseases. “Our individual choices over the next several weeks will determine whether hospitals are able to return to a sustainable level of operations by the end of December.”

Daily COVID-19 deaths remain high. In early August, the seven day rolling average for deaths was between 5 and 10 deaths per day, the DOH said, but exploded to 36 as of Sept. 7. It has declined slightly to 33 by Sept. 28.