Monday Morning Quarterback

Los Angeles Times reports that for nearly two decades, more Asians have immigrated to California than Latin Americans. This trend, which takes into account documented and undocumented arrivals, has reshaped the immigrant experience in California in dramatic ways that are now coming into view. For example, in the workforce, California data are showing more high-skilled immigrants coming from Asia and fewer lower-skilled workers coming from Latin America. The changing migration patterns are hitting regions in different ways: In Silicon Valley, 42% of Santa Clara County residents are now immigrants, with most coming from China and India. By contrast, Los Angeles County is about one-third immigrant with most still coming from Latin America. The big question now is how President Trump’s border policies will affect these trends. While Asian immigrants now outnumber Latino arrivals to California, that is not the case for the rest of the U.S., where Latinos from Central and South America still represent the largest immigrant group entering our country. Demographic experts say Trump’s radical and controversial policies (if carried out) could accelerate the trend by further limiting immigration from the southern border while companies continue to use visas to get skilled workers from other countries. Trump has promised the largest deportation of people here illegally in U.S. history, but it has yet to materialize. There are an estimated 11 million to 15 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., including more than 2 million in California. The Trump administration has also shut down a phone application used by migrants to legally enter the U.S. at the southern border. As for the H-1B visa program, some Trump supporters have called on him to make changes, claiming the program gives high-skilled jobs to foreign-born workers and deprives Americans of those posts. For example, the visas allow foreign-born computer scientists, engineers and other highly skilled workers to migrate to the United States, and tech titans close to Trump back H-1B. So far, the president appears to be siding with them. In 1990, 32% of California immigrants came from Asia and 56% came from Latin America, per census data reviewed by the Public Policy Institute of California. In contrast, in 2022, 46% of California immigrants came from Asia, and 38% came from Latin America. European immigrants also made up a greater proportion of immigrants overall, going from 5.5% to 10% in the same span. In other real estate investor news, let’s get under the hood…

California’s Housing Problems Require A Better Solution Than Densify, Densify, Densify. Oh, come on, enough with density. The Palisades and Eaton fires represent thousands of personal tragedies, but they also constitute a collective disaster, adding new housing shortages to California’s already massive shortfall (a catastrophe that stems not from acts of nature but from human policy blunders). Governor Newsom recently purchased a new $9 million house in November, but too many of ours fellow Californians may never own a home or find an affordable rental. Under Newsom, the state has tried reforms designed to increase building and affordability, but precious little has changed. Home prices in coastal California remain nearly 400% above the national average, and statewide, the median cost of a home is 2.5 times higher than in the rest of the country. California has the second lowest homeownership rate in the nation at 56% (New York’s is lowest, 54%). As for renting, the average cost of a two-bedroom apartment in Los Angeles is just shy of $3,000 a month, according to apartments.com, about $1,000 more than the national average. Of course, these statistics aren’t bad news for everyone. Many California investors (who bought into neighborhoods long ago) have made out like bandits through escalating home prices. Along with Gen Xers, investors have rental ownership rates similar to those in the rest of the country. But the rate is half the national level for Californians under 35, and they are precisely the group that is deserting the West Coast for “cost of living” reasons. The state’s housing crisis has its roots in excessive construction regulations and litigation aimed at developers — for decades, too few residential units were built. Unfortunately, the cure Sacramento is pushing (policies that favor dense, apartment development near transit corridors in the state’s biggest cities) isn’t helping. For starters, high-density “infill” construction in cities — some call it YIMBY (“yes in my backyard”) development — is costly. City land is expensive, materials costs are high, “prevailing wage” labor rates and onerous permitting, zoning and planning processes and fees add to the bottom line. Yes, new multi-story apartment buildings packed in along Sunset Boulevard or the Wilshire corridor may add to L.A.’s overall housing stock, but even when affordable rental units are required in these buildings, the trickle-down benefit is minimal.

Rams Plan Large Woodland Hills Project. Developer titan Stan Kroenke finally made good on years of speculation last week when he announced a 52-acre development in Woodland Hills on properties he spent years scooping up. The Los Angeles Rams owner will build what the Kroenke Organization is calling “Rams Village” in the Warner Center area of Woodland Hills. The Gensler-designed project will, similarly to Kroenke’s other recent developments, include a mix of entertainment and sports venues, retail space, residential units and open park space. In the announcement, Kroenke highlighted that as the Rams prepare for their 10th season back in Los Angeles, his organization remains “committed to helping shape the future of this great city.” The anchor for Rams Village will, naturally, be the permanent headquarters of the football team. Last year, the Rams established a temporary base of operations on one of these properties just in time for the previous NFL season. The two outdoor practice fields will remain and the plan is to add an additional 150,000-square-foot indoor field with seating for 2,500 guests. In addition to the 350,000-square-foot headquarters building itself, plans call for two indoor performance venues, one with 5,000 seats and the other with 2,500 seats. An existing building on this lot, called the “Anthem building” (since it previously housed the health insurer) will remain and be used for office space. Kroenke’s business empire acquired this lot in June 2022 for $175 million. The lot across the street (currently home to the essentially dead Promenade shopping mall) will see a complete transformation. Replacing the mall will be a variety of residential buildings, mixed use retail with a grocery store, new hotels, offices and a park. There will be more than 3 million square feet of residential units and nearly 2 million square feet of retail, office, hotel and entertainment space. There will also be more than 4 acres of publicly accessible open space.

Palisades Homeowners Warn Of Post-Fire Rebuilding Gridlock. According to figures compiled by Jeremy Padawer, the Palisades currently has over 200 active listings, with only 31 lots sold in the past 90 days. Altadena, by comparison, had more than 100 sales during the same period on just 81 active listings. “That means Altadena is moving inventory nearly nine times faster,” he says. Palisades resident and operator of PacificPalisades.com, Padawer attributes this divide to affordability, development feasibility and what he sees as damaging city policy. “In Altadena, it’s still possible to rebuild and sell at a reasonable cost. Here, in the Palisades, between high property taxes, the ULA tax and construction costs, the math just doesn’t work.” The ULA tax, often referred to as the “mansion tax,” imposes a 4 to 5.5 percent charge on home sales over $5 million. Padawer says the tax applies to the gross sale price, regardless of whether the seller takes a loss and discourages redevelopment in high-value areas like the Palisades. He’s also critical of what he describes as a “dwelling tax,” where the city assesses property taxes proportionally based on how much of the home has been rebuilt, even before it’s finished. “It’s like being taxed for a home you don’t yet live in,” he says. “If your house is 35 percent complete, you’re charged for 35 percent of the value. That’s before you've moved back in and while you're already paying interest and holding costs.” Padawer believes Pacific Palisades could see lot values drop as much as 40 percent from pre-fire prices if the trend continues. “We’re not seeing any meaningful relief or policy change. Meanwhile, holding costs keep rising and developers are staying away.” He also expressed frustration with the city’s initial response to the fire. “This community pays over $600 million in property taxes each year,” he says. “But when it mattered most, we had one police car, no hydrants and empty reservoirs. We didn’t get the emergency response or preparedness that should come with that level of contribution.”

Young Chinese People Are Living in Hotels to Escape High Rent. Dodgy landlords, confusing leases, and massive deposits are driving young people in China to ditch apartments altogether. Instead, they’re opting to live full-time in hotels—and for many, it just makes more sense. Hu Weiwei, a 24-year-old professional gamer, ditched renting in Tianjin after realizing a long-term hotel stay was not only less stressful—it was actually more affordable. “No deposit, no agency fees, and utilities are included,” she told Sixth Tone magazine. Plus, there’s 24/7 AC, no cleaning chores, and surveillance cameras in the halls, which she says makes her feel safer living alone. Her routine (sleeping in, ordering takeout, playing games, and working late online) fits seamlessly into the hotel lifestyle. She’s bounced between cities like Shanghai and Suzhou, and has no plans to go back to traditional renting anytime soon. She’s not alone. According to Qunar, bookings for hotel stays longer than a month more than doubled last winter compared to pre-pandemic years, with the biggest spike among 25- to 30-year-olds. And this isn’t just about money—it’s about mobility. A wave of younger “migratory birds” is emerging, following in the footsteps of China’s retired snowbirds who head south to escape freezing winters. Now Gen Z is doing the same, choosing warm-weather cities like Sanya, Kunming, and Xiamen for long-term stays. Compared to renting, hotel life can be surprisingly competitive. Hu said a shared apartment in Tianjin ran about 1,000 yuan ($140) a month, while a private place cost as much as 3,000 ($411). Her hotel? Just 2,500 yuan ($342) a month. No landlord texts. No hidden fees. And no fighting over dishes in a shared kitchen. Hotels are leaning into it. Hotels that once sat half-empty during off-seasons are now offering extended-stay deals, bundled laundry and food services, and even shuttle tours to win over long-term guests. “Compared with ordinary houses, these hotel apartments and B&Bs are often better decorated and have more complete services,” Qunar’s data team noted. For China’s Gen Z, renting is out—hotel living is in. Is America far behind?

Man’s Seven “Emotional Support” Tigers Seized in Nevada. A Nevada man was arrested last week after seven tigers that he claimed were his “emotional support animals” were seized from his property, the local authorities said. Karl Mitchell, 71, was arrested last Wednesday at his property in Pahrump (an unincorporated town in Nye County about 50 miles west of Las Vegas), on charges of resisting arrest and possession of a gun by a prohibited person, according to the Nye County Sheriff’s Office. A SWAT team entered the property to seize the tigers, which the Sheriff’s Office said Mr. Mitchell had been keeping without the permit required by the county. Mr. Mitchell refused to provide keys to the tiger cages and was then arrested just before 8 a.m., according to the documents. A handgun was also found in the bedroom of Mr. Mitchell, who is a felon, the Sheriff’s Office said. Mr. Mitchell was released later that evening, according to the records. Sheriff Joe McGill of Nye County told KSNV the NBC affiliate in Las Vegas, that the investigation into Mr. Mitchell, who was also being evicted from his property, had begun several months ago. “We have known for several years he has big cats on his property, and for the last two years, this has been in violation because he had no permits for those cats,” Sheriff McGill said. Sheriff McGill added that his office had received information over the years indicating that Mr. Mitchell was seen walking the tigers in and around his property in the desert. In a phone interview on Sunday, Mr. Mitchell, who described himself as a veteran with PTSD, said that a doctor with the Department of Veterans Affairs had approved of his keeping the Bengal tigers as “emotional support” animals. He also provided what appeared to be a letter from the doctor. The doctor did not immediately respond to a phone call from KSNV seeking comment on Monday. “They give me calmness, peace,” Mr. Mitchell said. “They are our whole life, and they’re our children.” Mr. Mitchell’s license to exhibit animals was revoked in 2001, but he continued exhibiting tigers. He receives payment from people who are photographed with or allowed to pet the animals, according to the documents.

Top 10 Baby Names For Boys And Girls In The United States Every 10 Years. In my never-ending quest to bring you the latest news, here are the most popular baby names. For reference, let’s use the new book, “Boy and Girl Baby Names” with the latest insights into the evolution of popular names over the past century. Top Boy Names. Consistent Popularity: Some names have shown remarkable staying power. James, for example, has consistently appeared in the top 10 lists throughout the decades, demonstrating its enduring appeal. This name has been a reliable favorite across different generations. Recent Trends: Liam and Noah are currently among the most popular boy names. These names have seen a surge in popularity in recent years, reflecting contemporary naming preferences. Fluctuations: The popularity of names like John, Robert, and William has declined over the years. These were once dominant names, but their prevalence has decreased as new names have gained favor. This highlights the dynamic nature of baby name trends. John: A classic name that was extremely popular in the early to mid-20th century. Robert: Another traditional name that has seen a decrease in popularity in recent decades. William: While still somewhat popular, its peak popularity was in the earlier part of the century. For the record, “Lloyd” does not appear on any list in the book (although clearly it is a fabulous name for a new boy). Top Girl Names. Classic Choices: Mary was a dominant name in the early part of the century, but its popularity has decreased significantly. Emerging Favorites: Olivia and Emma are currently very popular girl names. Changing Tastes: Names like Helen, Ruth, and Virginia were once common but are less so today, reflecting changing cultural preferences.

How to Invest in Commercial Real Estate. One of the exploding areas of real estate investing is commercial properties. And it's easy to see why. The properties are generally better quality, the tenants are responsible businesses, the leases are triple net (tenants pay for everything!), and your profits are larger. What more could you ask? Plus, commercial properties are easier to find, value and buy - if you know where to look. The expert authority who will show you how to find, value and buy commercial properties is the renown Joseph James. And he's exclusively ours on May 8, 2025. Don't miss this special event! Iman Cultural Center, 3376 Motor Avenue (between National and Palms), Culver City CA. FREE Admission. Please RSVP at our website, LARealEstateInvestors.com.

Vendors Expo Returns! Our world-famous "Vendors Expo" returns in 2025, on Thursday night, May 8, 2025. The Vendor Expo opens starting at 6:30 pm. We'll have 30+ of the finest vendors featuring real estate products and services you will want to utilize as a successful investor. Our Vendor Expo will be held at the Iman Cultural Center, 3376 Motor Avenue (between National and Palms), Culver City CA. FREE Admission. Please RSVP at our website, LARealEstateInvestors.com.

This Week. Investors will continue to look for additional information about tariff policies. It will be a very light week for economic reports, highlighted by the housing sector data. New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday from the Census Bureau. Existing Home Sales will be released on Thursday from the National Association of Realtors.

Weekly Changes:

10-Year Treasuries: Fell 020 bps

Dow Jones Average: Fell 1,000 points

NASDAQ: Fell 400 points

Calendar:

Wednesday (4/23): New Home Sales

Thursday (4/24): Existing Home Sales

Friday (4/24): Durable Orders

For further information, comments, and questions:

Lloyd Segal

President

Los Angeles County Real Estate Investors Association, Lloyd@LARealEstateInvestors.com

310-792-6404