Monday Morning Quarterback

By chance, did you win a cottage in Ireland? Kathleen Spangler has had a busy year. Amid many life-changing events, she only vaguely remembers buying a few tickets in an online raffle back in December. She had been browsing Irish real estate sites on Instagram when she saw a post announcing the chance to win a house on 1.75 acres in County Leitrim, a pastoral corner of northwest Ireland. Tickets cost five British pounds apiece, and the site was promoting a buy-two-get-one-free offer. On a whim, Ms. Spangler entered, paying $12.67 for three tickets. Six months later, on May 22, she got a text from a friend asking, “By chance, did you win a cottage in Ireland?” Her friend had just read an article about Imelda Collins, an Irish woman who was hosting the raffle with the goal of offloading her two-bedroom cottage and moving to Italy. But by the time she decided to enter herself, the contest had closed and a winner had been announced by Raffall, the British company sponsoring it. It was Kathleen Spangler. Ms. Spangler didn’t believe it. She sent a text to her husband, who was in class, as a question more than a declaration: “I think I just won a house in Ireland?” What were the chances that she had won a worldwide raffle competition based in Ireland with just three tickets? But when she received an email from Ms. Collins herself, Ms. Spangler realized it had actually happened. “Imelda’s first email mentioned how I must be in shock, but she’s excited for me,” she recalls. They spoke a few hours later on WhatsApp. “It was a great experience to be able to speak directly to her, and helped to make things real.” With a newborn, a new home and a new academic venture, the Spanglers are now beginning to sort out how and when they’ll take possession of the house, from the legal red tape to the tax implications. Meanwhile, Ms. Collins made a killing! She decided to raffle her house after reading about another Irishwoman who had raffled her Dublin apartment. In the end, Ms. Collins says, 206,815 tickets were sold, grossing 1,034,705 pounds (about $1.4 million). Besides the 10 percent to Raffall, she has about 2,600 euros to pay in affiliate fees, plus a 33 percent capital gains tax, 1 percent of the value of the house for stamp duty, and fees for her lawyers and the Spanglers’ lawyers. Not bad for a house she bought for about $150,000 in 2022.

Home Sellers Face An ‘Absolutely Brutal’ Market Tilting In Buyers’ Favor. In many local U.S. housing markets, there are far more sellers than buyers. For example, there were nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers in April, according to a new report by the real-estate brokerage Redfin, the highest figure ever since the company began tracking it in 2013. Redfin looked at the number of active listings and compared it with the number of buyers, based on an estimate of how many buyers toured homes and then went on to purchase them. “In other words, it’s a buyer’s market,” the company says. About 1.9 million homeowners were selling their properties in April, the highest number since March 2020. The strongest buyer’s markets were in Miami (where there were nearly 22,000 sellers and 7,300 buyers), followed by West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale, all cities in Florida. To be sure, many markets still remain a hot sellers’ market. Among the 50 most populous metropolitan areas in the U.S., the top seller’s markets included Newark, N.J., Nassau County, N.Y., and Montgomery County, Pa. In Newark, there were nearly 10,000 buyers and only about 5,200 sellers in April, while home prices were up 12.2% from the same month a year earlier. But across the country overall, sellers are losing their upper hand in the housing market — even if they haven’t realized it. “The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers, but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. Listed homes are spending more time on the market than they have in years. About 44% of home listings in April had been on the market for 60 days or longer, the highest share for that month in five years, Redfin reports. “Stale inventory is piling up because many sellers are overpricing their homes, using sky-high comps from the recent seller’s market that aren’t realistic today,” Redfin said. “In some cases, sellers are pricing high because they bought at the peak of the market and are trying to recoup their investment.”

More Builders Slash Prices As Home Buyers Stay Away From The Housing Market. The National Association of Home Builders’ monthly confidence index fell to 32 in June, a drop of 2 points, the industry group said last Tuesday. A year ago, the index stood at 43. The June reading was the lowest since December 2022. Builder sentiment about the housing market fell significantly in June as buyers generally continued to shy away from purchasing homes in a high-interest-rate environment. Home prices remained elevated, making homeownership an unaffordable prospect for many. Economic uncertainty also continued to weigh on home buyers. It’s not just builders. Homeowners selling their properties are also having a hard time in the current environment, as demand for homes remains depressed. As housing inventory builds up, sellers across the country are cutting prices to entice buyers, leading some to argue that the housing market has become more buyer-friendly. As inventory levels rise and buyers hold back, waiting for mortgage rates to drop or home prices to go down, the housing market is seeing “weakening price growth in most markets and generating price declines for resales in a growing number of markets,” Robert Dietz, chief economist at the NAHB, said in a statement. The NAHB expects builders to pull back the pace of constructing new homes, referred to as housing starts, in 2025. Builders have been pulling the price-cut lever for some time now, but are escalating that tactic as competition intensifies. In June, 37% of builders cut home prices, marking the highest share since the NAHB began tracking the figure in 2022. The average price reduction was 5% in June, unchanged from the previous month. More builders were also offering other types of discounts. The use of sales incentives was 62%, up from last month’s 61%. These include mortgage-rate buydowns, where the builder offers a lower interest rate to the buyer for a set period before it adjusts upwards.

Unfortunately, Altadena Is For Sale. In the wake of the devastating Eaton fire that tore through Altadena in January, hundreds of signs sprouted up in the ash-laden yards of burned-down homes: “Altadena Not for Sale.” The slogan signified a resistance toward outside investors looking to buy up the droves of suddenly buildable lots. But as the summer real estate market kicks into gear, not only is Altadena for sale — it seems to be flying off the shelves. Roughly 145 burned lots have sold so far, another 100 are currently listed, and dozens more are in escrow. The identity of every single buyer isn’t clear, since many are obscured by trusts or limited liability companies, but real estate records and local sources suggest that developers are buying the lion’s share of lots. It’s far outpacing the Palisades market, where less than 60 lots have sold since the fire and roughly 180 are sitting on the market, sometimes for months. The roughly 250 lots sold and listed so far in Altadena represent only a small fraction of the 6,000 homes lost in the Eaton fire, but the market will probably get hotter. Each month has seen a steady increase in listings and sales, and local real estate agents say the only thing keeping more from selling is the slow process of fire victims navigating insurance claims and wrapping their heads around the reality of rebuilding, which will probably take at least half a decade. “In a perfect world, my neighbors and I would all rebuild, and five years from now, Altadena would look the same as it did before the fire,” said one resident who asked to speak anonymously for fear of judgment from community members urging others not to sell. “But it’s just not realistic.” Lots have sold for as little as $330,000 and as much as $1.865 million, with most going for somewhere between $500,000 and $700,000. The first lot to hit the market listed for $449,000 and sold for $100,000 over the asking price in an all-cash deal — though with the influx in inventory since then, investors are typically paying just the full asking price, not more. Of the sales so far, around half of the burned properties have sold to investors that have only purchased only one, while half have sold to investors purchasing multiple lots including Black Lion Properties, Iron Rings Altadena, Ocean Dev Inc., NP Altadena and Sheng Feng.

After Losing Their Fortune to Bernie Madoff, Kevin Bacon and Kyra Sedgwick Turned It Around With Real Estate Investments. When Bernie Madoff was arrested for defrauding people out of millions of dollars in 2008, many were shocked to learn that beloved actors Kevin Bacon and Kyra Sedgwick were among his victims. And, while an exact dollar amount has never been released, many believe that the pair lost around $30 million. In the years that followed Madoff's crimes, his victims worked hard to rebuild their net worth. That goes for Bacon and Sedgwick as well, who appear to have spent their time and energy investing in one particular area: Real estate. The duo have amassed quite the real estate portfolio over the years, and it's believed that they're well on their way to recouping everything they lost. According to Hello!, the couple made some smart real estate investments, creating streams of passive income to refill their coffers. Among them is a 40-acre farm in Connecticut. The publication notes that the average home prices in the state have nearly doubled since 2020. Considering the fact that the couple bought the farm back in 1983 for an undisclosed amount, it stands to reason that they've already built up quite a bit of equity in the property. Then there’s the Beverly Hills residence, and investments in several apartment buildings. And don’t forget the couple's New York co-op, which is likely seeing a similar equity boon as they hold onto the property year after year. But, while Bacon and Sedgwick work to replace the money lost to Madoff's scam, you'll likely never hear status updates from the stars themselves. That's because Bacon spoke publicly about the crimes shortly after it happened, saying that he wouldn't complain about what happened to him because he believed that nobody wants to listen to a Hollywood A-lister complaining about money. Whether he was right or not remains to be seen, but one thing I can say is that I love to hear about how much success he and his wife are having when it comes to real estate investing because that’s what this weekly Quarterback is all about. And, with real estate prices set to remain high throughout the rest of the year, they may be able to tuck a little extra away, helping them to rebuild after such a sad and shocking loss.

Obama’s Former Summer Home In Massachusetts Hits Market For $39 Million. A 30-acre property on the island of Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts where former President Barack Obama and his family spent a number of summer vacations recently went on sale for $39 million. The estate’s owner since 2011 has been Sir Norman Foster, a British architect known for projects such as the Gherkin high-rise and Wembley Stadium in London. Foster designed and built a contemporary pool house and pool at the former Obama property to complement the traditional New England-style main and guest houses. On Martha’s Vineyard, the median price of a single-family home that sold in March was $1.7 million, according to Homes.com data. The picturesque island, located 16 miles off Cape Cod, has long attracted celebrities; film director Spike Lee has a house in the town of Oak Bluffs, and former President Bill Clinton also summered on the island. The Obamas chose to stay at the location in the town of Chilmark on the island’s western side “for its incredible privacy, serenity, and significance,” real estate brokerage Corcoran said in a statement. The family stayed there during Obama’s first term, before Foster bought the house, according to the Vineyard Gazette. In much of Chilmark, the minimum required lot size for new construction is at least three acres, according to Homes.com, which says there were just three active listings in the town as of March and the median single-family home price was $2.3 million. Known as “Blue Heron Farm,” the land abuts Tisbury Great Pond. The 7,000-square-foot main house has a wraparound porch that looks out on a rolling lawn. The guest house includes five bedrooms. There’s also staff housing, a 150-year-old barn that was relocated from Pennsylvania, a sizeable waterfront boat house, a tennis court and equestrian riding rings.

King of the Kazoos. Albert Broder was in a high state of annoyance. I had just walked into his Fairfax Avenue store and committed the unpardonable sin of putting the wrong end of a kazoo in my mouth. He is a large, balding man with an aggressive manner and a voice as flat and dry as a Texas desert. “You do it this way.” He put a white kazoo with a Coca-Cola logo in his mouth. Then he played something that sounded like “Stars and Stripes Forever.” That was when I made my second mistake, or perhaps third (if you count walking into the store in the first place as a mistake). I blew into the kazoo. “You don’t blow into the kazoo, for God’s sake!” Broder bellows, grimacing. “You hum!” “Educating the public is my No. 1 job,” he explains with a sigh. “I even had an instruction booklet made up.” He hands me a booklet: “The Kazoo: A Fun Music-Maker for All Ages.” Operating instructions in the booklet: (1) Place larger end in mouth. (2) Keep fingers and thumb clear of turret and small opening. (3) Hum (don’t blow). Broder has been selling kazoos for three years. Before that, he drove a taxi in Detroit. He considers himself “Mr. Kazoo.” You can’t miss his small, kazoo-cluttered store across from the Farmers Market. In front, there is an animated gorilla with a clown on its shoulders and a kazoo in its mouth. The gorilla’s head moves from side to side. I visit Mr. Kazoo occasionally to see what he’s up to. He is not the only promoter I have ever known, but he is the only promoter I have ever known who is trying to be to the kazoo what Col. Sanders was to fried chicken. His latest kazoo-oriented undertaking involves wrestling. “I’m looking for a wrestler I will call Captain Kazoo,” Broder announces. “He’ll wear a Captain Kazoo outfit and hand out 5,000 kazoos with his picture on it every time he wrestles. Broder then proudly plays “Mairzy Doats” on the kazoo. It also sounded like “Stars and Stripes Forever.”

“An Evening with Jennifer Greene.” On Thursday night, July 10, 2025, we will have the honor to host the renown real estate investor, Jennifer Greene. Jennifer has developed a unique approach to real estate investing by creating strong value-added relationships with referral partners across several professions. Jennifer is a marketing wiz and turns the real estate market upside down. Don’t miss her presentation! Thursday, July 10th, 6:30 to 9:30 pm. Iman Cultural Center, 3376 Motor Avenue (between National and Palms), Culver City CA. FREE Admission. Please RSVP at our website, LARealEstateInvestors.com.

Vendors Expo Returns! Our world-famous "Vendors Expo" returns in 2025, on Thursday night, July 10, 2025. The Vendor Expo opens starting at 6:30 pm. We'll have 30+ of the finest vendors featuring real estate products and services you will want to utilize as a successful investor. Our Vendor Expo will be held at the Iman Cultural Center, 3376 Motor Avenue (between National and Palms), Culver City CA. FREE Admission. Please RSVP at our website, LARealEstateInvestors.com.

This Week. Investors will continue looking for additional information about tariff policies and monitor the situation in the Middle East. For economic reports, Existing Home Sales will be released on Monday from the National Association of Realtors, and New Home Sales on Wednesday from the Census Bureau. Consumer Confidence will come out on Tuesday from the Conference Board. Personal Income and the PCE Price Index (the inflation indicator favored by the Fed) will be released on Friday from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Weekly Changes:

10-Year Treasuries: Flat 000 bps

Dow Jones Average: Rose 100 points

NASDAQ: Rose 200 points

Calendar:

Monday (6/23): Existing Home Sales

Wednesday (6/25): New Home Sales

Friday (6/27): Core PCE

For further information, comments, and questions:

Lloyd Segal

President

Los Angeles County Real Estate Investors Association

Lloyd@LARealEstateInvestors.com

310-792-6404