Monday Morning Quarterback
(Monday, October 13, 2025)
Historic Housing Bill Will Bring Higher Density To Transit Hubs. Here’s another dagger in the rapidly disappearing concept of single-family zoning. Governor Newsom signed Senate Bill 79 into law last Friday. The historic bill, which looks to add density to transit hubs across California, is one of the most ambitious state-imposed housing efforts in recent memory. “All Californians deserve an affordable place to live — close to jobs, schools, and opportunity. Housing near transit means shorter commutes, lower costs, and more time with family,” Newsom said in a statement. The sweeping bill (which takes effect July 1, 2026) upzones areas across California, overriding local zoning laws to allow taller, denser projects near transit hubs such as subway stops, light rail stops, and bus stops with dedicated lanes. Developers will be permitted to build up to nine-story residential buildings adjacent to subway stops, seven stories within a quarter-mile of them and six stories within a half-mile. The bill will also allow residential buildings that reach five to eight stories near light rail and dedicated bus lanes, depending on how close a piece of property is to a particular station or bus stop. Newsom’s decision caps months of debate and weeks of pleas from residents, advocacy groups and cities imploring him to either sign or veto the bill. It’s a huge win for YIMBY groups and developers, who claim the quickest way to address California’s housing crisis is to build housing — especially near transit stops to encourage public transportation and cut down on vehicle pollution. It’s a blow for some cities, especially Los Angeles, which claim that the bill brings a one-size-fits-all approach to a problem that needs local control. Mayor Karen Bass asked Newsom to veto the bill, and the L.A. City Council passed a motion opposing it. What was left was a wordy, at-times confusing bill. First, the bill’s scope was narrowed from all of California to only counties with at least 15 passenger rail stations, leaving only eight: Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Alameda, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara and Sacramento. The biggest impact will probably be felt in Los Angeles, which has an estimated 150 transit stops covered by the bill, according to the city’s preliminary assessment. Senate Bill 79 would override local zoning laws, allowing buildings of five to nine stories in areas close to many public transit stops in Los Angeles, according to the city’s preliminary analysis. Still, some properties would be eligible for exemptions or a multi-year delay. In other real estate news, let’s get under the hood…
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The Mortgage Fraud Case Against Letitia James Explained. A novice prosecutor for the Trump administration this week obtained a grand jury indictment accusing Letitia James, the New York attorney general (who investigated President Trump for financial crimes), of mortgage fraud. Avoiding the politics as best I can, let’s take a closer look at the James case (which should be interesting to every real estate investor). According to the New York Times, the indictment says that when Ms. James took out a $109,600 loan in August 2020 to purchase a house in Norfolk, Virginia for $137,000. The terms of her mortgage required her to use the property as her “secondary residence” and not as an investment. But, it says, she never used the house herself and instead rented it out. Because of her alleged misrepresentation, the indictment says, Ms. James obtained a lower interest rate and a higher seller credit than her bank was offering for mortgages on investment properties, will save her a total of $18,933 in “ill-gotten gains” over the life of the loan. Ms. James is charged with one count of bank fraud and one count of making a false statement to a financial institution. Each charge carries a maximum penalty of a $1 million fine and up to 30 years in prison. Banks can call in loans and take civil actions when they uncover misrepresentations, but federal prosecutors rarely bother with criminal charges — especially when the purported ill gains are so very small. According to an interactive data analyzer for the United States Sentencing Commission, 38 people were sentenced in 2024 for federal mortgage fraud convictions, and most of those cases involved dollar amounts in excess of $550,000. To convict Ms. James at trial, prosecutors would have to persuade a jury not only that her paperwork contained an error, but also that it was an intentional misrepresentation and not an inadvertent mistake. Even assuming the allegations are accurate, it is not yet clear whether there are additional facts that could raise a reasonable doubt about her intentions. One thing is clear though. Ms. James never occupied the house. Instead, she allowed her great-niece, Ms. Nakia Thompson and her family to rent the house. But here's the catch, Ms. Thompson testified at the Grand Jury she never paid rent to Ms. James. So at issue is the question whether a property where the tenants (family) never paid rent, still a rental investment property? Before you rush to judgment, keep in mind Ms. James’ attorneys have not yet had an opportunity to present their case. So say tuned!
Two Rust Belt Towns Have The Fastest-Growing Home Prices In The U.S. Here’s a puzzle: Name two Rust Belt cities where home prices are going up faster than all other major American cities. The answer: Scranton, Pa., and Syracuse, N.Y., according to new data from Intercontinental Exchange. These two Northeastern cities, both former manufacturing hubs, saw faster annual home-price growth than 98 other U.S. metro areas in September. (Notably, former President Biden was born in Scranton, and went to law school at Syracuse University.) The growth in home prices in Scranton and Syracuse is at odds with what’s happening in the rest of the residential real-estate market. Home sales nationally have been stagnant. The housing market remains expensive for most buyers, who are finding current home prices and mortgage rates too high. In response, buyers have pulled back, and home prices have been falling sharply in parts of the country. But metro areas in the Northeast continue to enjoy strong home-price appreciation, as buyer demand has yet to fall off a cliff. Buyers are still competing with other bidders for a small pool of homes, keeping the region competitive — even as the housing market remains historically unaffordable. Home prices in Syracuse grew 10.2% between mid-September 2024 and mid-September 2025, putting the metro area at the top of the list among the 100 largest metros in America, according to data from Intercontinental Exchange. In Scranton, home prices grew 7.9% over the same period, which put the metro in second place. The two former industrial hubs were followed by Bridgeport, Conn.; Buffalo, N.Y.; and Rochester, N.Y. Meanwhile, home prices fared the worst in Sun Belt areas that were pandemic-era darlings. Why are prices going up so much in Syracuse and Scranton? Real-estate agents attribute the jump to the relative affordability of homes.
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Twelve States That Would Shrink Without International Migration. It is a fairly well-known fact that several U.S. states (among them prominent coastal ones) are losing population. One major factor in this development that started some years ago (even before the pandemic) has been domestic outmigration, which is tied to high cost of living. At the same time, international immigration diversified in the United States location-wise, eventually tipping the scales for these states despite many still registering more births than deaths (including California, New York, Hawaii and Illinois). Less well known is which states depend on migration - mostly the international type - to continue to grow. These places are a more diverse bunch and include both places that need to compensate for falling birth rates and places that are struggling with people moving to other parts of the country (or both). This is especially interesting among the renewed discussion about U.S. immigration in 2025. Among the states that would have lost population without legal international migration is last year's battleground state Michigan as well as Ohio. Both states have negative net births, meaning more people die each year than are born, and negative net immigration. However, tens of thousands of people move to both states each year from abroad (even after subtracting those who leave for a different country), compensating for the above losses. The situation is similar in Mississippi and New Mexico. Also shrinking without international immigration would be Alaska, Maryland, Massachusetts, Washinton and New Jersey. In their cases, it is massive domestic outmigration that has to be counterbalanced as net births have stayed positive in all five states. The most drastic example is Massachusetts, which grew by around 7,000 people last year after accounting only for births and deaths, but at the same time lost almost 40,000 people to net domestic outmigration. The arrival of more than 50,000 legal international immigrants made up for it, though. Th only U.S. states that do not receive a large number of international migrants but depend on domestic immigration for population growth are New Hampshire and Maine. They are seen as cheaper, more scenic and still close to East Coast population centers.
The Mob, the Mansion, and Agent Zero. On a hot afternoon in late July, a jubilant Gilbert Arenas (the retired NBA point guard who grew up in the Valley with a single dad before he catapulted himself to an All-Star career with the Washington Wizards) dances his way out of a federal lockup. The athlete is all smiles, fist pumping and wrist twisting as he makes his way down dozens of concrete steps in flip-flops, clad in the same black tee and red basketball shorts he was wearing when he was arrested in a predawn raid by federal investigators hours earlier. His celebratory frolic is captured by his new wife, French American influencer and YouTube star Melli Monaco, who stands on the sidewalk recording a cellphone video. She has just posted a $50,000 bond so that her husband of roughly seven months can come home. As Arenas skips into the frame, Monaco can be heard giggling, “Free!” It is a stunning act of braggadocio from a man now charged alongside a coterie of colorful suspected underworld figures with ties to various organized crime outfits — a crew federal prosecutors say runs high-stakes poker games at tony homes across Los Angeles with a carefully curated guest list of wealthy Angelenos: NBA players, Hollywood industry insiders and trust funders. Private card games are not necessarily illegal, unless of course the players, the prostitutes in attendance or anyone else affiliated with the enjoyment of a long, smoky night playing Pot Limit Omaha is paying a “rake” (a tax) to the house, in this case to the Israeli mob. That underworld outfit, according to federal prosecutors, has a history of offering high-interest loans to the night’s big losers– and of eliminating those running competing high-stakes poker games. Those are among the charges outlined in a 24-page federal indictment unsealed by federal prosecutors in July, charges that come three years after an armed raid interrupted one such game at Arenas’ 5,300-square-foot mega mansion in Encino. Feds refer to Arenas’ palatial estate on Gable Drive as the “Gable House.” Its owner earned a flashier nickname from basketball fans: “Agent Zero,” inspired both by the way he eluded defenders on the court like a clandestine operative and because of his jersey number, 0. Federal investigators say the Gable House was a den of debaucherous poker games run by men who seem to be on the periphery of at least two high-profile crimes in Los Angeles.
Woman Pranks Boyfriend with Chic Anthropologie Decor. One woman’s “rock-solid” sense of humor is going viral after she pranked her boyfriend with an unexpected home decor purchase. In a now-viral TikTok, Phoebe Adams calls her boyfriend, Dan Diliberto, into the room as she unboxes a package, claiming it’s from Anthropologie. When she tears it open, she reveals a rock, insisting it’s meant for their entryway table.
“You bought a rock?” Diliberto asks, baffled.
“Oh my god, it’s perfect,” Adams replies.
“Wait, you bought this?” he says.
“What do you mean I bought this? It’s the cutest rock ever,” she insists. “It’s not just a rock — it’s one-of-a-kind. They literally found it in the ground!” Diliberto then asks how much she spent on the rock. Adams tells him $150. He gets frustrated, saying he could find a million rocks outside. Undeterred, she places it on the entryway table, exclaiming, “Oh my god, it’s so cute.”
“No, it’s not — it just looks like a rock,” her boyfriend adds.
Since posting the video, it's amassed over 11 million views. Adams has also shared video updates on the rock, including her teaming up with her local Anthropologie store to host a real-life prank on her boyfriend that she was buying another rock. In the follow-up video, she takes him over to a display set up in an Anthropologie store, advertising 50% off "The Rock Collection."
"This is rocking our world," Anthropologie store manager commented.
6th Annual Los Angeles Real Estate Grand Expo. Join the finest builders, contractors, property managers, landlords, investors, and related real estate professionals, at the largest real estate event in Southern California, featuring 12 national speakers, 70 real estate vendors, food trucks, free workshops, and the ultimate networking. Saturday, November 8, 2025, at the Iman Cultural Center, 3376 Motor Avenue, Culver City, CA. RSVP: www.LAGrandExpo.com. Free admission. Street and valet parking.
This Week. Looking ahead, investors will continue to watch for additional information about tariffs and monitor comments from Fed officials for hints about monetary policy later in the year. With the government shutdown, there may not be any major economic data released next week. As originally scheduled, The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a widely followed monthly inflation indicator that looks at the price changes for a broad range of goods and services, would come out on Wednesday. Retail Sales would be released on Thursday. Since consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, the retail sales data is a key measure of the health of our economy. Housing Starts and Import Prices would be released on Friday.
Weekly Changes:
10-Year Treasuries: Flat 000 bps
Dow Jones Average: Fell 100 points
NASDAQ: Rose 300 points
Calendar:
Wednesday (10/15): Consumer Price Index
Thursday (10/16): Retail Sales
Friday (10/17): Housing Starts
For further information, comments, and questions:
Lloyd Segal
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