DUSD School Board Discusses New Enrollment Projections

DUBLIN, CA — Dublin school board members Tuesday night were presented with revised projections of student enrollment for the next six years.

Those estimates reflected significant reductions from previous estimates used in the lengthy process of crafting a $1 billion Facilities Master Plan that is scheduled for final consideration next month.

The new estimates were contained in a report prepared by SchoolWorks, Inc., a Sacramento area planning and demographics analysis firm. The firm revised expected enrollment through the 2027-28 school year and took a fresh look at classroom capacity and school facilities utilization that will be needed to accommodate the increased student population.

Those projections estimate that district enrollment of 12,773 for the 2022-23 school year will increase to 13,309 by 2027-28.

This is in stark comparison to the 14,388 students projected for 2026-27 as projected in a November 2020 report. That report was the first time enrollment estimates had been revised since December 2019.

But after considerable discussion the board delayed acceptance of the report until next month, asking for further refinements in the projections and suggesting the report didn’t fully take into account shifting school boundaries, new schools yet to be constructed and the impact of children in Transitional Kindergarten, an additional level of education between preschool and kindergarten.

Ken Reynolds, SchoolWorks president, told board members enrollment projections were measured and neither conservative or aggressive in approach. “It was our best job to present what enrollment will look like in the next six years,” he said, agreeing to refine the numbers before the next school board meeting.

In other action, board members re-elected Cherrier as board president for the coming year, his third term in that position, and elected Kristin Pelham, who represents Area 2, as vice president.