CU Researchers Link Climate Change And Violent Crime

BOULDER, CO -- Scholars at the local Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences have published a new study linking the nationwide variability of winter temperatures to the incidence of violent crime. Though previous research had established a link between temperature and crime, this was the first study to measure the effects of a more volatile climate.

Ryan Harp, a University of Colorado-Boulder PhD student, was the lead author of "The Influence of Interannual Climate Variability on Regional Violent Crime Rates in the United States," published this week in the journal GeoHealth. His co-author was Kris Karnauskas, an associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at CU-Boulder.

Using regional and monthly averaging, the pair analyzed the correlation of changes in climate and crime rates. They found ample connections, with the strongest effects occurring during the winter months. Harp and Karnauskas explain that their data show the Routine Activities Theory – which describes crimes unaffected by social causes such as poverty, inequality, and unemployment – as the primary cause of the relationship.

Karnauskas explained the importance of this work in a news release by the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences.

"It broadens our thinking on connections between climate and human health, to encompass a very real and dangerous threat to our bodily safety and, therefore, health."

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