Coronavirus Could Push Tampa Area Hospitals Past Capacity: Study

TAMPA, FL — With a growing number of new coronavirus cases in Florida and no end in sight, a new study raises questions as to whether the Tampa Bay region has enough hospital beds.

The warning about the potential for overwhelmed hospitals comes from an analysis by Harvard Global Health Institute and ProPublica.

One of the measures Florida officials have considered to address this problem was reopening shuttered hospital facilities around the state and setting up mobile hospitals.

“At the end of the day, you may need, obviously more beds for people who are critically ill, but you want to have a system in place so that run of the mill COVID-19 patients who do not require hospitalization are able to get diagnosed, tested and then be able to be in self-isolation without them clogging the hospital system," acknowledged Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Patch reached out to Tampa Bay General Hospital, Sarasota Memorial Hospital, Bayfront Health St. Petersburg and the Florida Hospital Association for additional details. We will update this story as soon as we hear back from them.

From ProPublica:

As of 2018, Bradenton had 829 total hospital beds, of which about 57 percent were occupied, potentially leaving only 340 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 100 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

In nearby Tampa, there were 4,010 total hospital beds as of 2018, of which about 68 percent were occupied, potentially leaving only 1,290 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 520 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory.

As of 2018, St. Petersburg had 1,420 total hospital beds, of which about 56 percent were occupied, potentially leaving only 610 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 140 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory.

Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

The St. Petersburg region has a population of about 427,000 residents; 21 percent are over the age of 65. The Bradenton region has a population of about 332,000 residents; 25 percent are over the age of 65. Tampa has 1.5 million residents; 14 percent are over the age of 65.

The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus.

In a moderate scenario, in which 40 percent of the adult population contracts the disease over 12 months, Tampa Bay, Bradenton and St. Petersburg would be among the regions that would need to expand capacity.

It is estimated that about 8 percent of the adult population in Tampa, 9 percent in Bradenton and 9 percent in St. Petersburg would require hospital care.

In a moderate scenario where 40 percent of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in Tampa would receive an estimated 97,200 coronavirus patients. The influx of patients would require 3,240 beds over 12 months, which is 2.5 available beds in that time period.

Hospitals in Bradenton would receive an estimated 23,400 coronavirus patients in a moderate scenario. The influx of patients would require 780 beds over 12 months, which is 2.3 available beds in that time period.

Hospitals in St. Petersburg would receive an estimated 30,400 coronavirus patients. The influx of patients would require 1,010 beds over 12 months, which is 165 percent of available beds in that time period.

The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.

In the Tampa region, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 170 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 4.2 times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

Intensive care units would also be overwhelmed and require additional capacity in the Bradenton area. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 49 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 3.6 times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

The St. Petersburg area would also be overwhelmed and require additional capacity.

Without coronavirus patients, there are only 33 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 6.8 times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

Click here to see ProPublica's full story and specifics about hospitals in your area