Dorian Could Become A Cat 3 Or Even A Cat 4; Here's Why

FORT COLLINS, CO — A weather researcher from Colorado State University's prestigious CSU Tropical Meteorology Project told Patch that Hurricane Dorian has the potential to become a Category 3 or even a Category 4 storm as it approaches Florida.

"It is possible," said Jhordanne J. Jones of the Michael Bell Research Group in the university's Department of Atmospheric Science. "Dorian is actually moving into a region of very favorable conditions. It's moving out of this really dry patch that's been over the north Atlantic for awhile."

See also Category 1 Hurricane Dorian Heading To FL; Gov Declares Emergency

Dorian is likely to get a boost from Tropical Depression Erin, which does not appear to pose a threat to the United States, according to Jones.

"It's directly behind Erin who has left a lot of moisture in the area," she explained. "There is enough for Dorian to actually power up."

She said one model as of Wednesday afternoon was predicting that Dorian would possibly strengthen into a Category 4 storm.

"There's one but we'll have to see," Jones said. "There's still a lot of uncertainty around it."

The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has predicted a total of 12 named storms to form after Aug. 1. Of those, researchers expected six to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

It remains to be seen whether Dorian will be one of them and if Dorian will strike Florida though Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency on Wednesday ahead of the storm. Category 3 storms pack winds of 111 to 129 mph while Category 4 storms have winds that range from 130 to 156 mph.

Katrina was a Category 3 at landfall while Hurricane Charley was a Category 4.

"It's forecast to hit on Monday," Jones said of when Dorian is forecast to arrive in the Sunshine State. "You really should start preparing now. We're not exactly sure how Dorian will play out. There's really a lot of uncertainty."

To some extent, the storm has already defied conventional wisdom.

"We're actually coming out of conditions that are unfavorable for tropical cyclone development," Jones observed. "But, Dorian is powering through. He's surviving. Dorian has been moving slow because he's been surrounded by a lot of dry air. We're not sure what will happen once he hits this moister air and is able to power up."

She said preparation is key.

"The best thing that Florida can do, especially the eastern coast, is to be as prepared as possible," she explained. "Know where you go once next week comes around. If you think about it, that's actually not a lot of time in terms of preparation."

Jones added that Dorian has been something of a mystery.

"Dorian has definitely exceeded our expectations," she said. "We knew that something like this could happen and it has happened before. But, like I said, he's surviving against all odds, against the dry air that's over the north Atlantic."