La Niña Winter Likely: Here's What It Means For GA

After weeks of triple-digit scorching temperatures, Georgians may find themselves wondering about the upcoming winter. Will it be cold and rainy or mild and dry?

The answer may lie with La Niña, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced this month. It will also vary depending on where you live.

NOAA has issued a La Niña Watch for the fall and winter of 2025-26, meaning there is at least a 50 percent chance of a weak La Niña developing later this year.

La Niña is a climate phenomenon that occurs when the central and eastern Pacific Ocean cools down more than usual. It typically causes the northern United States to be cold and wetter than usual, and the southern states to be warmer and drier than usual.

El Niño, on the other hand, usually means the reverse. The central and eastern Pacific warms up more than usual, resulting in warmer weather in the north, wetter weather in the south, and often large, unpredictable storms.

Currently, the Pacific remains in ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning neither La Niña nor El Niño are active, but NOAA’s latest predictions expect that to shift around October.

"ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October)," NOAA said. "Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral."

According to their Aug. 14 predictions, experts say that there is around a 55 percent chance La Niña will develop any time from September to November.

Georgia Impacts

NOAA maps published on Aug. 21 show a 33-40 percent chance that the entire state will see seasonal temperatures higher than normal between December and February.

Precipitation levels in southern Georgia may be below average with 40-50 percent probability, while central Georgia could face chances of 33-40 percent below-average precipitation.

Nationwide

Much of the southern U.S., stretching from California’s Central Coast to Florida and up the entire East Coast, is moderately likely to see above-average temperatures this winter.

For much of the Midwest, it is equally likely to be above or below normal. Only Washington state and southeast Alaska are likely to see below-average temperatures.

Much of the southern U.S., stretching from the Bay Area in a U-shape to the Washington D.C. area, is moderately likely to see below-average precipitation. Pockets of the Midwest, including Indiana and Ohio, are 33-40 percent likely to see above-average participation. The rest of the country remains uncertain.

On that note, much of this forecast remains relatively uncertain. “Nothing is guaranteed in this business,” said Michelle L’Heureux, scientist at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA updates its long-range outlooks monthly, and the next forecast is scheduled for Sept. 19.

Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website. See here for predictions through November 2026.