Politics & Government
Poll Shocker: John E. Sununu, Pappas In Statistical Dead Heat For U.S. Senate
The results from 500 likely voters give U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas a narrow lead of 45 to 43%, well within the poll's 4.4% margin of error.
A potential U.S. Senate race between Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu is already a statistical dead heat even before the first political shot has been fired, a new poll shows.
The results, first reported by Punchbowl News, give Pappas a narrow lead of 45 to 43 percent, well within the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error.
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“Former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu’s entry into the New Hampshire Senate race would flip the script and make this a top Republican pickup opportunity in the midterms,” according to the memo from the GOP polling firm 1892. “If Sununu runs, Chris Pappas will be in for the fight of his political career.”
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Sununu, brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu and son of former Gov. John H. Sununu, announced last week he is seriously considering entering the race and will make a final decision by the end of October. Former ambassador and U.S. Sen. Scott Brown and state Sen. Dan Innis (R-Bradford) are already running in the primary.
Pappas has one Democratic primary opponent thus far, science writer and progressive activist Karishma Manzur, Ph.D.
New Hampshire has not elected a GOP U.S. Senate candidate since 2010.
According to the polling memo:
- Sununu would win the critical Independent vote, 41-40% (+1%).
- Among voters who have “heard of both” candidates, Sununu and Pappas are tied 45-45%. Among voters who have an “opinion of both” candidates, Sununu would lead 47-46% (+1%).
- Undecideds voted for President Trump by +8% and favor a generic Republican by +13%.
The poll also finds Sununu with a net positive approval rating: 35 percent of likely voters have a favorable view of Sununu, 24 percent are unfavorable, and 27 percent are undecided.
“Should Sununu return to politics, he would single-handedly change the trajectory of the New Hampshire Senate race,” the memo adds.
Developing…
This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.
