Murphy Holds Double Digit Lead Over Ciattarelli: Latest Poll

NEW JERSEY — A new Monmouth Poll released Wednesday shows Democratic Governor Phil Murphy has a double-digit lead over Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, just a week before election day.

The poll found that half of registered voters support Murphy, while 39 percent back Ciattarelli. This 11-point margin is a slight decrease for the incumbent from results in Monmouth polls in September and August.

Last week, an Emerson College/PIX 11 poll showed a much closer race, with Ciattarelli six points behind Murphy. The Emerson College/PIX 11 poll came after a Stockton University poll showed a nine point deficit in late September.

According to the Monmouth poll, votes among seniors shifted, going from a 53 percent to 37 percent lead for Murphy in September to a smaller 48 percent to 43 percent lead in the current poll.

“We’ve had a couple of debates and a slew of advertising since the last Monmouth poll. Ciattarelli has chipped away at Murphy’s lead but hasn’t delivered the knockout he needs,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The Monmouth poll maintains that both candidates maintain strong support from their bases. Independents in the state are split with 41% for Ciattarelli and 40% for Murphy, according to the poll.

“Even if we figure in potential error margins for these partisan group results, Ciattarelli cannot win this race based on registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters alone. That outcome would require a pretty sizable collapse of Democratic turnout,” said Murray.

Monmouth found that Ciattarelli has an advantage over Murphy on being trusted more to handle taxes with 39 percent to Murphy's 29 percent, but Murphy has a larger edge on education, 42 percent to 27 percent for Ciattarelli, and the pandemic, 45 percent to 26 percent, as well as abortion, 39 percent to 23 percent, and transportation, 36 percent to 24 percent. The two candidates are about evenly matched on handling jobs and the economy, 34 percent for Murphy to 33 percent for Ciattarelli, and crime, 32 percent Ciattarelli to 30 percent Murphy.

Election Day is Nov. 2. Early in-person voting is underway in New Jersey for the first time in state history as part of the 2021 general election from Oct. 23 to Oct. 31.