New Poll Puts Murphy 8 Points Ahead Of Ciattarelli In Governor's Race

NEW JERSEY — Just one day before election day, a Rutgers-Eagleton poll found Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy was leading New Jersey's governor's race by eight points. Murphy was up 50 percent to 42 percent over Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli among registered voters, according to the poll.

The poll found that many registered voters are casting their vote not necessarily out of support for their candidate but in opposition to the opponent, about 24 percent. The other reason was because of their partisanship, 18 percent.

“Any good poll consumer needs to remember – especially in an election cycle – that any single
poll is a snapshot in time, that poll numbers are estimates with some level of statistical
uncertainty, and that they are meant more to explain than predict,” said Ashley Koning, an
assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling
(ECPIP) at Rutgers University–New Brunswick. “But if we look at the several statewide polls
conducted in the last week, the big picture points to a sizable margin for Murphy that – despite
narrowing throughout the campaign – will be difficult for Ciattarelli to overcome in the final
days, especially in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one in registration.”

Half of New Jerseyans continue to have a favorable impression of the governor, according to the poll, while 35 percent have an unfavorable one; 11 percent have no opinion on him at all, and 4 percent claim they do not know who he is.

The poll found that Ciattarelli’s name recognition improved in the final months of the campaign. Thirty-three percent of all New Jerseyans are now favorable toward the Republican nominee, almost triple what it was last spring. Yet unfavorable impressions of him have also tripled in this same time, now at 34 percent. Another 21 percent continue to have no opinion of Ciattarelli Thirteen percent still do not know who Ciattarelli is, just a third of what it was in the spring.

The Rutgers-Eagleton poll came out less than a week after a Monmouth Poll released Wednesday showed Murphy leading the polls in the Governor's race by 11 points. A week before, an Emerson College/PIX 11 poll showed a much closer race, with Ciattarelli six points behind Murphy. The Emerson College/PIX 11 poll came after a Stockton University poll showed a nine point deficit in late September.