Coastal Communities in New Jersey Likely to Experience Dramatic Flooding Increase, Report Says

Scientists based in Cambridge, Massachusetts have issued a frightening report on coastal communities along the eastern seaboard and Gulf coasts, warning of increased tidal flooding over the next 30 years, according to the Cape May County Herald.

The 76-page report, written by the Union of Concerned Scientists and titled “Encroaching Tides,” examined expectations of future rising sea levels causing tidal flooding, an issue that could have disastrous results similar to Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

An excerpt from the report says that sea levels rising, primarily as a result of global warming, “is the main cause of observed increases in tidal flooding. While global sea level rose roughly eight inches from 1880 to 2009, much higher rates have occurred along parts of the East Coast, including New York City (more than 17 inches since 1856), Baltimore (13 inches since 1902), and Boston (nearly 10 inches since 1921).”

The severity of tidal flooding could be as drastic as what communities in New Jersey and New York City saw in Superstorm Sandy, and have disastrous affects on property, infrastructure, and even basic daily life in flood-prone areas. In 2012, gas was rationed by ending numerals on license plates on alternating days, and electricity, phone, and other utilities were all but completely severed for several weeks in the aftermath. Some families have still not rebuilt their homes, many of which were completely destroyed. The storm is considered to be the second costliest in U.S. history, at $65 billion in damages and repair costs.

The study examined 52 tide guages in coastal communities from Portland, Maine to Freeport, Texas, and predicts that locations in New Jersey could see ”80 tidal floods or more” in the next three decades, as sea levels rise. The mid-Atlantic coast, of which New Jersey is situated in, is “expected to see some of the greatest increases in flood frequency,” the report continues. The floods will also change from being considered minor, to “more extensive”.

According to the study, one third of the 52 locations would face tidal flooding more than 180 times per year, with nine locations, including Atlantic City and Cape May, experiencing flooding a possible 240 or more times per year. Sandy Hook is also at risk, according to the scientists, and could average more than 75 tidal floods per year by 2030.

Shifting Attitude: Too Little, Too Late?

Some communities unfamiliar with constant tidal flooding would be forced to deal with “chronic flooding”, a change from occasional tidal flooding the area experiences at present, and the report stresses the need for municipalities and residents to prepare for acceptance of these changes.

The scientists and co-authors Erika Spanger-Siegfried, Melanie Fitzpatrick, and Kristina Dahl draw attention to the fact that the issue goes well beyond what municipalities are capable of dealing with on their own.

Although municipalities have the ability to ”act with urgency” in preparing for the rising threat of major coastal flooding, by adapting measures such as sea walls and natural buffers, ”the costs and challenges, however, are too great for municipalities to shoulder alone”.

“A coordinated, well-funded federal response is also needed and should include both substantial investments in coastal resilience building, as well as action to deeply and swiftly reduce global warming pollution,” the report says. “This latter action may ultimately be the only reliable way to protect coastal communities over the long term – by slowing the pace of future sea level rise.”

The report does not offer an optimist outlook on the future of these coastal communities, even with changes in attitude and perception by residents and officials.

“Increased tidal flooding is essentially guaranteed. Changes already set in motion by our past and present heat-trapping emissions will largely drive the pace of sea level rise and flooding over the next several decades,” the report says.

The “hard truth”, the scientists say, is that adaptation has “fundamental limits — whether physical, economic, or social — and it can only fend off the impacts of sea level rise to a point.

“As sea level rises higher, even our best protection efforts will not suffice in some areas in the face of rising tides, waves, and storm surges.”

The entire report is available online at www.ucsusa.org.