Has The Coronavirus Peaked In New Jersey?

TRENTON, NJ — Has the coronavirus peaked in New Jersey? State officials are saying they've "plateaued" and "stabilized." But they're waiting for more data before making any declarations.

Gov. Phil Murphy was not ready to proclaim that New Jersey was on the downside of the coronavirus crisis on Wednesday and Thursday despite the progress that's been made and the "flattening" of the curve of cases.

Indeed, the daily number of new cases has been stable througout April, averaging around 3,500 a day (see numbers below).

"We're not there yet," Gov. Phil Murphy said. "To lose 314 blessed souls of our state (on Wednesday) is a sobering reminder that even when we start to see those curves start to come down, you have folks who were infected some number of weeks ago who are losing their lives in these days."

A coronavirus projection model by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which has been used by the White House to influence response to the outbreak, estimated the peak for COVID-19 deaths in New Jersey was supposed to be April 15 and 16.

New Jersey hit its peak, so far, of deaths on Tuesday, April 21, when Murphy reported that another 379 people died of the disease. Read more: Gov. Murphy: NJ Coronavirus Outbreak Again Has Deadliest Day: 379

Despite the grim numbers, however, Murphy said several positive trends continue, noting that New Jersey is seeing decreases in the number of new daily hospitalizations.

"This ties almost directly with the fact that we're slowing the rate of spread," he said. "The fewer people who test positive, the fewer people who need to go to the hospital."

The peak for hospital resources was supposed to be April 14. That number appears to be on course, so far; the trend of new hospitalizations has been going down over the past week, hitting an April low of 361 on Tuesday:

The predictions from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which have been referenced by members of the White House to determine the national reaction, indicate the national coronavirus infection peak in deaths and resources occurred in mid-April.

The institute bases its modeling on the expected peak of infections and the number of hospital beds, number of intensive-care beds, and ventilators available for COVID-19 patients.

Currently, 7,240 New Jerseyans are hospitalized due to COVID-19, and 1,462 ventilators are in use.

Murphy said New Jersey has "clearly come an enormous distance. We are clearly heading in the right direction. Everything overwhelmingly tells us that."

But, "we're not there yet," he said. "Just because hospitalizations have stabilized or critical care beds have stabilized or ventilators have stabilized, we're not there yet."

The overall number of cases rose to 99,989 on Thursday, and 5,368 people have died. Murphy said he'd like to see a complete downward trend before making the decision whether to reopen schools on or after May 15. Read more: NJ Coronavirus Updates: Here's What You Need To Know

Here is a look at new coronavirus cases by day in April:

• April 23: 4,427
• April 22: 3,551
• April 21: 3,644
• April 20: 3,528
• April 19: 3,915
• April 18: 3,026
• April 17: 3,250
• April 16: 4,391
• April 15: 2,625
• April 14: 4,049
• April 13: 3,219
• April 12: 3,733
• April 11: 3,599
• April 10: 3,627
• April 9: 3,748
• April 8: 3,088
• April 7: 3,361
• April 6: 3,663
• April 5: 3,482
• April 4: 4,331
• April 3: 4,372
• April 2: 3,489
• April 1: 3,649

Here is a look at coronavirus deaths by day in April

• April 23: 307
• April 22: 314
• April 21: 379
• April 20: 177
• April 19: 132
• April 18: 231
• April 17: 323
• April 16: 362
• April 15: 351
• April 14: 365
• April 13: 94
• April 12: 168
• April 11: 251
• April 10: 233
• April 9: 198
• April 8: 275
• April 7: 232
• April 6: 86
• April 5: 71
• April 4: 200
• April 3: 113
• April 2: 182
• April 1: 91