'Intense': Here’s What To Expect From Winter 2025-26 In NYC

NEW YORK CITY — This winter is expected to be especially snowy in New York City, according to AccuWeather, which released its 2025-2026 winter forecast Thursday.

The private weather company predicts New York City and the rest of the Northeast will see more storms and snowfall than usual, even though the actual snow on the ground may not exceed the seasonal average, partly because some storms in mid-to-late winter could bring a mix of snow and rain instead of pure snow.

Overall, weather patterns will run the gamut from snowy nor’easters and frigid Arctic blasts to continued drought and warmth.

The most significant storms are expected to occur during the opening and final weeks of the season, according to Paul Pastelok, lead long-range meteorologist at AccuWeather.

"It can be an intense stormy winter for areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic," Pastelok said.

Elsewhere in the United States, cold weather is expected to settle in early December across more than a dozen states in the Plains and Midwest, with a brief respite anticipated in January. According to AccuWeather, the cold will return and spread across the central and eastern United States in February.

Winter temperatures are expected to be milder further south, with fewer and less intense cold air blasts.

“The Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast should run above historical averages on temperatures, and below on precipitation,” Pastelok said, adding that warm water in the Gulf could fuel severe thunderstorms, including those with damaging winds, lightning and tornadoes.

A major blast of Arctic air isn’t out of the question in the South, though. Pastelok said a major pattern shift around late January or early February could mean “significant cold air” could sweep into Texas and the Gulf Coast. That’s historically when the polar vortex has the highest potential to shift south, unleashing some of the coldest air of the season across North America, according to research by AccuWeather’s team of long-range forecasters.

Higher-than-normal temperatures across the northern Pacific Ocean are likely to bring a milder winter to the West Coast and Rocky Mountains, according to the forecast.

“These waters off the West Coast and extending farther out are very, very important going into our [winter] forecast this year,” Pastelok said, pointing out there haven’t been many winters in recent decades with a similar setup across such a vast area of the ocean.

Pastelok noted that if the above-normal sea surface temperatures persist throughout much of the season, the Northwest may experience a mild and dry winter. This warm and dry trend will be most evident in California. January might bring some precipitation as the storm track shifts south, but as it retreats north in February, near-record highs are possible in California and most of the Southwest and Rockies.

The January storms are unlikely to significantly improve drought conditions, which Pastelok anticipates will worsen in 2026.

The wild card is whether there’s a La Niña or an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, either of which can greatly influence how storms develop in North America, especially in the winter. In a La Niña, the water near the equator in the Pacific Ocean is cooler than the long-term average over three months. It’s the opposite in an El Niño pattern.

Even if a La Niña doesn’t officially develop this winter, there may be times when weather patterns seem as if it has — for example, with the warmer weather across the southern U.S., Pastelok said.