Erin Forecast 'Fortunate' For Nassau's South Shore, Which Should Miss Brunt Of Major Hurricane

LONG BEACH, NY — As Hurricane Erin churns in the Atlantic Ocean as a powerful Category 4, as the forecast stands, Long Island will dodge a bullet.

Erin's path is expected to keep it way off the East Coast. But that doesn't mean there won't be some impact along the South Shore.

"We're looking more in the way of high surf and dangerous rip currents," Jay Engle, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Upton, N.Y., told Patch.

That is expected to start Tuesday and could linger into the early part of the weekend.

Looking at the oceanfront, widespread dune erosion is likely, along with some minor beach flooding, Engle said.

If Erin maintains its track, "all of the main impacts of wind and rain are going to go well out to sea," he said.

That track has kept Erin north and east of hitting any landfall. As of Monday afternoon, Hurricane Erin, almost taking a parallel track hundreds of miles away from the coast, had sustained winds of 140 miles per hour, with gusts at 165 miles per hour.

But the most vulnerable locations along the South Shore could still experience minor to moderate localized coastal flooding. Engle expects that during high tide cycles in the middle of the week, Erin will get "east of the area along with elevated astronomical tides," he said.

Engle said the South Shore bays are the typical spots for any flooding issues, "due to swell energy from Erin, maybe getting trapped."

Wind gusts along Nassau's South Shore are not expected to reach 30 miles per hour this week, which Engle said is indirectly related to Erin's wrath.

"We're not overly concerned about any high or dangerous wind impacts," he said.

Given Erin's size and strength, the forecast is showing a best-case scenario across Nassau County.

"If it did track a bit further west, then we could be talking about, maybe, some stronger winds," Engle said. "The fact that the wind field is going to get east of us, you could say we are somewhat fortunate."