Will Abortion Rights Be A Factor In Midterm Elections? [POLL]

NEW YORK — Pundits have been saying the political odds are against the Democrats in this year's midterm elections.

Last week, the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll released its survey seeming to support the view that Republicans have a lead — albeit slim — over Democratic candidates nationally.

The poll of registered voters in the United States said Republicans have a 47 percent advantage in the midterms to Dems' 44 percent. Respondents said they thought Republicans can better handle inflation, crime, national security and gun policy. Results of the poll are statistically significant within ±3.4 percentage points.

Independents break 45 percent for the Republican candidate and 38 percent for the Democrat on a generic congressional ballot, the poll found. Notably, 10 percent of independents are unsure.

The issues pluralities of Americans thought that Republicans would be better at dealing with were national security (43 percent), the economy (42 percent), controlling inflation (41 percent), gun policy (41 percent) and crime (39 percent).

Issues that pluralities of Americans felt Democrats were stronger at handling were LGBTQ rights (48 percent), climate change (45 percent), abortion (41 percent), voting rights (41 percent), education (38 percent) and COVID-19 ( 37 percent), the poll said.

The Republican base is weakest on the issues of LGBTQ rights, climate change and COVID-19, Marist Poll said.

Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, said the road to the midterms has the GOP in the driver's seat.

"If the Democrats can't boost their credibility on the economy," he said, "they will need to hone a message about what a Congress controlled by Republicans will mean for the composition of the Supreme Court and the issues Americans look to Democrats to protect or advance."

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll surveyed 1,377 adults between April 19 and April 26. That was almost a week before Politico obtained and released a draft copy of Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito's majority opinion striking down the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states.

While the actual ruling isn't expected until June or July, the release of the draft has ignited protests, arguments and an endless amount of speculation as to who leaked the document.

There are those who say it was leaked by someone who wants Roe overturned and to sure the majority is locked in and won't change their minds. Then some are saying it was leaked by a person who was hoping to spur outrage that might sway the court to change its mind.

Democrats, according to reporting by The New York Times, hope the leak would serve as a wake-up call to voters who might otherwise sit out the midterms.

Rep. Susan Wild, D-Pennsylvania, who is facing a competitive re-election, said "the Supreme Court has just handed us a reason for people to vote."

However, Republican strategist Glen Bolger said in The Times the leaked document could prompt Republicans to turn out more for the midterms.

The problem with that thinking could be that there is continued broad support for abortion rights. In May 2021, Gallup found 80 percent of Americans support abortion in all or most cases, only slightly up from 76 percent in 1975, Forbes reported.

In November, a January CNN poll found 69 percent were opposed to Roe being overturned.

Even in the red state of Texas, 78 percent of voters believe abortion should be allowed in some form. The Texas Tribune reported that only 15 percent of people responding to a University of Texas at Austin poll thought abortion should be illegal.

Now it's your turn to weigh in on the issue. Vote in our unscientific poll and tell us what you think in the comments.