Ohio Senate Primary Election: J.D. Vance, Tim Ryan Projected Winners

OHIO — Unofficial results are in for the Ohio Senate primary election, and voters have decided the fates of candidates for both the Republican and Democratic parties. J.D. Vance is the projected winner of the Republican race, and Tim Ryan is the projected winner of the Democrats, according to the Associated Press.

Vance, the author and venture capitalist, got a boost when he was endorsed by former President Donald Trump on April 15.

The Republican primary was seen as a measure of Donald Trump's influence on the party, and the projected results suggest the former president's influence remains strong.

After Vance was projected as the winner, Donald Trump Jr. tweeted: "The GOP is now the MAGA party! America First!"

Speaking to his supporters at an election night victory rally, Vance courted the support of his primary opponents.

"I hope to earn the support of Josh Mandel and all the other candidates who ran," Vance said.

Vance also quickly turned his attention to Ryan, whom he called a "Trump Democrat" because of Ryan repeatedly going after China on the campaign trail.

However, Vance said Ryan is not been as tough as he claims on China. He also said Ryan's votes in Congress have led to inflation and that he's refused to fight in Ohio against drug and sex traffickers.

"Tim Ryan needs to go down and we're going to be the party that does it," Vance said.

Vance also criticized both the establishment left and the establishment right on issues such as shipping jobs to China and the drug crisis. Though he did single out the left for its "woke values" and "42 genders."

"The people who are caught between the corrupt political class of the left and the right, they need a voice, they need a representative," Vance said.

The 37-year-old Vance told the crowd he was prepared to celebrate on Tuesday, though perhaps in a more toned-down manner than he would have a few years ago.

"But tomorrow when I say the people of Ohio need a voice, tonight we celebrate and tomorrow we start a campaigning to ensure they have that voice," Vance said.

Matt Dolan, who remained in third place with 8,614 of the state's 8,951 precincts reporting, according to unofficial results, conceded on social media and pledged his support to Vance.

"JD Vance and I have debated our differences, and in this hard fought campaign he was successful. Just as I will never quit fighting for Ohio, I now pledge to unite our party and endorse JD Vance to be our next U.S. Senator," Dolan wrote.

Like at his campaign stops, Vance was then played off the stage by the Fleetwood Mac song "Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow," which also was the theme song of Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, in a victory speech to supporters a few hours earlier, Ryan quoted John Glenn, Pope Francis and Bobby Kennedy and made clear that his message ahead of the general election will be about reaching out to all voters.

"John Glenn said: 'we are more fulfilled when we are involved in something bigger than us.' Pope Francis said: 'if you want happiness, give your life away.' That's this campaign. We are going to build a home for Ohioans whether they're Democrats, Republicans or independents, everyone is welcome in this campaign," Ryan said. "You tell your friends and you tell your family, (Ryan's) not talking about a food fight in Washington D.C., he's talking about getting stuff done."

Ryan continued: "I want you to bring Republicans and independents to our events. This is a special movement. The work is just beginning, the fight is just beginning, we're going to heal the country, heal Ohio and in turn heal the USA. And I'll tell all of you what Bobby Kennedy used to say: 'I do not promise you peace, I do not promise you comfort, but I will promise weariness, hardship and I'll promise you sacrifice.' And with these, I will promise you victory."

Morgan Harper, one of Ryan's opponents, wrote on Twitter:

"I just spoke with Congressman Ryan and congratulated him on his primary win. Thank you so much to our amazing team, and our supporters, volunteers, and Morganizers across Ohio and around the country! I am so incredibly grateful to have had your support in this race.
"This isn't the outcome we hoped for, but I look forward to helping to flip Ohio blue this November!"

11 p.m. Update

Outstanding Absentee & Provisional Ballots: 38,163
Election Day Precincts Reporting: 8,614
Total Number of Election Day Precincts: 8,951
Registered Voters: 7,948,302

Republican Primary Results:

Matt Dolan: 236,583 votes
Mike Gibbons: 118,566
Josh Mandel: 243,727
Neil Patel: 9,565
Mark Pukita: 21,555
Jane Timken: 60,673
J.D. Vance: 328,100

Total Votes Cast: 1,018,769

Democratic Primary Results:

Morgan Harper: 85,853 votes
Traci Johnson: 60,382
Tim Ryan: 337, 472

Total Votes Cast: 483,687

Though no Republican candidate had separated themselves from the pack as election day approached, one conclusion was clear during the campaign: Ohio GOP politics has experienced a shift in tone and rhetoric, away from moderates like Portman, who have shown a willingness to reach across the aisle, to bombastic Donald Trump-style identity politics.

Issues like Trump's "America First" agenda, the former president's border wall and the rejection of critical race theory, have become major talking points on the campaign trail.

As The New York Times explained: "Ohio used to be known for the quiet conservatism of the state's celebrated former senator George Voinovich and its current governor, Mike DeWine; for the Merlot-swilling happy-warrior days of the former House speaker John A. Boehner; for the moderation of John Kasich, a two-term governor; and for the free-trade, free-market ideology of Mr. Portman himself.

"Instead, affections for such Ohio leaders are now being weaponized — in broadsides from the candidates and advertisements by their allies — as evidence that rivals are paying only lip service to Mr. Trump and his angry populism."

As FiveThirtyEight pointed out, loyalty to Trump has become "a key litmus test" in the race to replace Portman. Of the seven candidates running for the Republican nomination, only Dolan — whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team —was willing to criticize Trump for the former president's insistence that the 2020 election was stolen.

Dolan, according to Politico, accused Trump of "perpetuat(ing) lies about the outcome" of the 2020 election, and he called the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol a "failure of leadership" by Trump and an "attack on Democracy."

Dolan appeared to make a late surge in the race, even pulling into the lead at 18 percent — according to an April 26 poll by Blueprint Polling, which still, significantly had one-third of the voters undecided.

Of course, the candidate in second place in that poll — Vance, at 17 percent — got the most media attention in recent weeks after receiving the coveted Donald Trump endorsement on April 15.

The Yale-educated Vance is a 37-year-old from rural Middletown who made his name as the author of the New York Times-bestselling book, "Hillbilly Elegy." He's also worked as a venture capitalist, and last month, a super PAC backing Vance received a $3.5 million contribution from billionaire tech entrepreneur Peter Thiel.

Vance also once was a frequent critic of Trump, both privately and publicly, calling Trump "reprehensible" in a 2016 tweet, saying that "I don't think (Trump) actually cares about folks," during a 2016 radio interview, and writing that Trump could be "America's Hitler," in a 2016 Facebook exchange.

But Vance changed his opinion on Trump, and embraced the former president on the campaign trail, as The Guardian stated:

"In less than six years, Vance has gone from a Trump skeptic who openly contemplated voting for Hillary Clinton to a devoted loyalist who has endorsed finishing the border wall and denounced identity politics as a Democratic gimmick. Vance's radical shift reflects the larger transformation of the Republican party, as it has become nearly impossible to succeed in a primary as a Trump critic," the newspaper wrote.

Trump and Vance appeared together at an April 23 campaign rally at the Delaware County Fairgrounds. In his endorsement of Vance, Trump wrote on social media:

"Like some others, J.D. Vance may have said some not so great things about me in the past, but he gets it now, and I have seen that in spades," the former president wrote. "He is our best chance for victory in what could be a very tough race"

However, Trump appeared to confuse Vance with Mandel during a campaign stop this past Saturday in Nebraska, stating: "We've endorsed ... JP, right? J.D. Mandel, and he's doing great. They're all doing good. They're all doing good. And let's see what happens."

Vance also received endorsements from controversial Republican Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, from Georgia, and Matt Gaetz, from Florida, at a campaign rally this past Saturday in Newark. At the rally, Greene went out of her way to criticize Mandel as not being a true believer in the MAGA cause.

"I didn't see the sincerity there. I didn't see the authenticity," Greene said about Mandel. "I just saw someone that learned to speak MAGA and just repeat it over and over. We don't want those people serving in Congress. We don't want those people in Washington. And so that's why I endorsed J.D. (Vance)."

Mandel, a 44-year-old who also is a former Ohio State representative and Marine, began the race as the clear front-runner, according to FiveThirtyEight.com. The Beachwood resident has embraced right-wing culture wars and has received endorsements from Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and the anti-tax Club for Growth.

However, Politico wrote that, like Greene's criticism, some Ohioans may have viewed Mandel as an opportunist who changed from moderate to full MAGA warrior to survive in today's GOP.

In the April 26 Blueprint poll, Mandel (12 percent) actually polled just behind Gibbons (13 percent).

The 70-year-old Gibbons had his share of first place in multiple independent polls early in the year. However, FiveThirtyEight noted that Gibbons' momentum appeared to stall after he and Mandel went nose-to-nose and appeared ready to fight during a March debate.

Gibbons was endorsed by Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul in January.

On the Democratic side, Tim Ryan was a clear front-runner heading into election day ahead of Harper, a consumer protection attorney and community organizer originally from Columbus, and Johnson, the president of a Columbus-area IT firm and a longtime government worker.

Ryan was first elected to the House of Representatives in 2002. He first represented the 17th district and, since redistricting, has represented the 13th district.

The 48-year-old Ryan ran for President in 2020, touting himself as a "progressive who knows how to talk to working-class people." However, he was unable to gain much traction, did not garner enough support to make the debate stage on multiple occasions and struggled to raise money, according to CNN.

But Ryan has remained a force in Democratic politics in Ohio, and during the campaign, he visited every one of the state's 88 counties and broken in-state fundraising records, according to The Atlantic. Ryan's message was about economic empowerment for communities left behind by the tech boom and globalization.

"I would argue that Tim Ryan is one of the most skilled candidates of his generation," Andrew Ginther, the mayor of Columbus, told The Atlantic. "There is no place in Ohio where Tim can go where he won't connect with folks — whether it's a church, a labor hall, a corporate boardroom."
Though Ryan was a clear front-runner to win the primary, much of the discussion during the campaign has centered on his ability to prevail in November's general election.

Though redistricting factored into his plan to abandon his House seat, according to The Atlantic, Ryan also appeared to be losing the support of some white working-class voters in recent elections.

Ryan received 72.6 percent of the vote in his congressional district in 2012, but just 52.5 percent in 2020, according to The Atlantic.

Ryan also received criticism from fellow Democrats in recent months for repeatedly blaming China for workers' economic woes.

In a campaign commercial, which features Ryan speaking during a number of campaign stops, he declares: "It is us versus China," adding: "China is out-manufacturing us left and right. America can never be dependent on communist China. We have to go all in, and that starts with investing in Ohio workers."

According to Roll Call, the rhetoric is consistent with Ryan's career focus on working-class issues and it's a message Ryan hopes can earn him cross-party appeal during the general election.

"There's no question that China's trade policies have been extremely damaging to the U.S., whether you're talking about the theft of intellectual property or currency manipulation. I mean, you go down the list, there have been a lot of unfair policies that have robbed American jobs," Dale Butland, a Democratic strategist who was press secretary and chief of staff for four-term Ohio Sen. John Glenn, told Roll Call.

Butland continued: "That is what Tim Ryan is going at. He's telling Ohio voters, particularly the blue-collar voters — that we have to win, who we have to win back, if we're going to have any hope of winning in that state again — that he is on their side."