Ohio Senate Primaries: What You Need To Know About The Candidates

OHIO — Voters will go to the polls Tuesday for the Ohio Republican and Democratic Senate primaries, which will determine who will vie for retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman's seat in the Nov. 8 general election.

On the eve of the primaries, much of the national media has focused on the Republicans, for various reasons.

For one, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, Ohio has become a Republican-leaning state, and 2022 is shaping up to be a Republican-leaning year.

Another significant development on the Republican side has been a shift in tone and rhetoric, away from moderates like Portman, who have shown a willingness to reach across the aisle, to bombastic Donald Trump-style identity politics.

Issues like Trump's "America First" agenda, the former president's border wall and the rejection of critical race theory, have become major talking points on the campaign trail.

As The New York Times explained:

"Ohio used to be known for the quiet conservatism of the state's celebrated former senator George Voinovich and its current governor, Mike DeWine; for the Merlot-swilling happy-warrior days of the former House speaker John A. Boehner; for the moderation of John Kasich, a two-term governor; and for the free-trade, free-market ideology of Mr. Portman himself.

"Instead, affections for such Ohio leaders are now being weaponized — in broadsides from the candidates and advertisements by their allies — as evidence that rivals are paying only lip service to Mr. Trump and his angry populism."

As FiveThirtyEight pointed out, loyalty to Trump has become "a key litmus test" in the race to replace Portman.

Of the seven candidates running for the Republican nomination, only Matt Dolan — a state senator from Cuyahoga County whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team —has been willing to criticize Trump for the former president's insistence that the 2020 election was stolen.

Dolan, according to Politico, has accused Trump of "perpetuat(ing) lies about the outcome" of the 2020 election, and he called the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol a "failure of leadership" by Trump and an "attack on Democracy."

Some recent polls suggest Dolan is making a late surge in the race. He even pulled into the lead —at 18 percent — according to an April 26 poll by Blueprint Polling, which still had one-third of the voters undecided.

Of course, the candidate in second place in that poll — J.D. Vance, at 17 percent — has been getting the most media attention in recent weeks after receiving the coveted Donald Trump endorsement on April 15.

The Yale-educated Vance is a 37-year-old from rural Middletown who made his name as the author of the New York Times-bestselling book, "Hillbilly Elegy." He's also worked as a venture capitalist, and last month, a super PAC backing Vance received a $3.5 million contribution from billionaire tech entrepreneur Peter Thiel.

Vance also once was a frequent critic of Trump, both privately and publicly, calling Trump "reprehensible" in a 2016 tweet, saying that "I don't think (Trump) actually cares about folks," during a 2016 radio interview, and writing that Trump could be "America's Hitler," in a 2016 Facebook exchange.

But Vance has changed his opinion on Trump, and now has embraced the former president, as The Guardian stated:

"In less than six years, Vance has gone from a Trump skeptic who openly contemplated voting for Hillary Clinton to a devoted loyalist who has endorsed finishing the border wall and denounced identity politics as a Democratic gimmick. Vance's radical shift reflects the larger transformation of the Republican party, as it has become nearly impossible to succeed in a primary as a Trump critic," the newspaper wrote.

Trump and Vance appeared together at an April 23 campaign rally at the Delaware County Fairgrounds. In his endorsement of Vance, Trump wrote on social media:

"Like some others, J.D. Vance may have said some not so great things about me in the past, but he gets it now, and I have seen that in spades," the former president wrote. "He is our best chance for victory in what could be a very tough race"

However, Trump appeared to confuse Vance with fellow candidate Josh Mandel during a campaign stop this past Saturday in Nebraska, stating: "We've endorsed ... JP, right? J.D. Mandel, and he's doing great. They're all doing good. They're all doing good. And let's see what happens."

Vance also received endorsements from controversial Republican Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, from Georgia, and Matt Gaetz, from Florida, at a campaign rally this past Saturday in Newark.

At the rally, Greene went out of her way to criticize Mandel as not being a true believer in the MAGA cause.

"I didn't see the sincerity there. I didn't see the authenticity," Greene said about Mandel. "I just saw someone that learned to speak MAGA and just repeat it over and over. We don't want those people serving in Congress. We don't want those people in Washington. And so that's why I endorsed J.D. (Vance)."

Mandel, a 44-year-old former Ohio State representative, state treasurer and Marine, began the race as the clear front-runner, according to FiveThirtyEight.com. The Beachwood resident has embraced right-wing culture wars and has received endorsements from Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and the anti-tax Club for Growth.

However, Politico wrote that, like Greene's criticism, some Ohioans may view Mandel as an opportunist who has changed from moderate to full MAGA warrior to survive in today's GOP.

In the April 26 Blueprint poll, Mandel (12 percent) actually polled just behind Mike Gibbons (13 percent). An investment banker from Fairview Park, Gibbons has spent almost $17 million of his own money on the campaign.

The 70-year-old Gibbons, a political outsider, had his share of first place in multiple independent polls early in the year. However, FiveThirtyEight noted that Gibbons' momentum appeared to stall after he and Mandel went nose-to-nose and appeared ready to fight during a March debate.

Gibbons was endorsed by Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul in January.

Former Ohio GOP Chair Jane Timken was endorsed by Portman in February, though the Cincinnati-area resident appears to be in fifth place in recent polls.

Westerville business owner Neil Patel and Dublin entrepreneur Mark Pukita are also in the race.

In the Democratic primary, longtime congressman Tim Ryan is all but certain to win his party's nomination, according to KESQ. In a University of Akron poll taken in February and March, Ryan had 38.2 percent of Democratic support.

In the same poll, Morgan Harper, a consumer protection attorney and community organizer originally from Columbus, had 14 percent support, and Traci Johnson, the president of a Columbus-area IT firm and a longtime government worker, was polling at 4 percent. The poll suggested 36.9 percent of the voters remained undecided.

Ryan, who hails from Niles in Trumbull County, was first elected to the House of Representatives in 2002. He first represented the 17th district and, since redistricting, has represented the 13th district.

The 48-year-old Ryan ran for President in 2020, touting himself as a "progressive who knows how to talk to working-class people." However, he was unable to gain much traction, did not garner enough support to make the debate stage on multiple occasions and struggled to raise money, according to CNN.

But Ryan remains a force in Democratic politics in Ohio, and during the campaign, he has visited every one of the state's 88 counties and broken in-state fundraising records, according to The Atlantic. Ryan's message has been about economic empowerment for communities left behind by the tech boom and globalization.

"I would argue that Tim Ryan is one of the most skilled candidates of his generation," Andrew Ginther, the mayor of Columbus, told The Atlantic. "There is no place in Ohio where Tim can go where he won't connect with folks — whether it's a church, a labor hall, a corporate boardroom."

Though Ryan is a clear front-runner to win the primary, much of the discussion during the campaign has centered on his ability to prevail in November's general election.

Though redistricting factored into his plan to abandon his House seat, according to The Atlantic, Ryan also appears to be losing the support of some white working-class voters.

Ryan received 72.6 percent of the vote in his congressional district in 2012, but just 52.5 percent in 2020, according to The Atlantic.

Ryan also has received criticism from fellow Democrats in recent months for repeatedly blaming China for workers' economic woes.

In a campaign commercial, which features Ryan speaking during a number of campaign stops, he declares: "It is us versus China," adding: "China is out-manufacturing us left and right. America can never be dependent on communist China. We have to go all in, and that starts with investing in Ohio workers."