1.6M Mail-In Ballots Already Returned In PA: See Data Here

PENNSYLVANIA — More than 1.6 million mail-in ballots have already been cast in Pennsylvania, and though official results will not tabulated until Election Day, there is available data that could start to shed light on voting trends and even who will win the White House this fall.

The actual vote results are not available, but the Pennsylvania Department of State has published a list of the party affiliation of all mail-in ballots that have thus far been received. As of Friday afternoon, Nov. 1, that number sits at 1,688,551.

See the full ballot report online here.

The vast majority of those who have voted early are registered as Democrats, which is no surprise, as Democrats typically have much larger mail-in numbers than Republicans, who do better on Election Day. Here is the statewide data thus far, out of those 1.6 million plus votes:

• 947,214 Democratic ballots have been returned, out of 1,199,558 requested
• 553,158 Republican ballots have been returned, out of 713,847 requested
• 188,179 other party ballots have been returned, out of 281,709 requested

Despite the Democratic lead, the Republican mail in tally already nearly matches Donald Trump's 2020 total with several days to go before Election Day: in 2020, Trump received 595,570 mail-in ballot votes in Pennsylvania.

This looks like undoubtedly good news for Republicans. But the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Not all registered Republicans vote all Republican, just as not all registered Democrats vote all Democrat. On top of that, some voters who have changed parties may not have filled out the paperwork to reflect that change.

Still, the strong turnout for Republicans in mail-ins is notable. Meanwhile, in 2020, Joe Biden received 1,995,720 mail-in votes. That's double the amount of Democrat votes that have been returned thus far in 2024. Of course, the 2020 election took place in the heart of the pandemic with many officials urging residents to vote by mail, and it was never likely that number of mail-in ballots would ever be approached again.

The true wild card here, beyond the smattering of Republicans and Democrats who will cross the party picket line to vote for the other party's candidate, is the independent and unregistered voters. They currently comprise more than 11 percent of all returned mail-in ballots. While many of these votes could be accorded to either Kamala Harris or Trump, they could also represent an increase in votes for third parties, as national dissatisfaction with the two party system continues to grow.

In Pennsylvania, the Green Party's Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver both appeared on the ballot. Though Pennsylvania Democrats spearheaded an effort to use the courts to block Cornel West from the ballot, he also ran a write in campaign in the Keystone State.