Tariff Changes In PA Ahead Of Holiday Shopping: What To Know

PENNSYLVANIA — President Donald Trump’s reversal of tariffs on certain imported goods isn’t expected to immediately lower grocery prices in Pennsylvania, and it remains unclear when consumers will see relief, economists caution.

With his administration facing blowback from consumers over higher grocery prices, Trump earlier this month rolled back tariffs on more than 200 grocery items from “countries that produce substantial volumes of agricultural products that are not grown or produced in sufficient quantities in the United States.”

That includes “coffee and tea; tropical fruits and fruit juices; cocoa and spices; bananas, oranges, and tomatoes; and beef,” according to the statement. In another announcement on Thursday, the White House said it is rolling back the 40 percent reciprocal tariff on certain products from Brazil, a key supplier of beef and coffee to the United States.

The tariffs remain in effect on the majority of consumer goods, including toys and holiday decor, that are predominantly imported from China.

None of this means Pennsylvania consumers will immediately see relief at the cash register. Food and other commodities imported and stored in warehouses were purchased under the higher duties and will be reflected in prices for an uncertain period of time.

“Supply chains do not react that quickly to pricing actions, whether from the president or organic fluctuations of market conditions,” Phil Kafarakis, CEO of food industry association IFMA, told CNBC.

“The effects of this executive order will not be felt by consumers for an extended period of time,” Kafarakis told the news outlet. “We might see some relief for tomatoes and strawberries in the spring.”

Cranberry Sauce Up 46%

Coffee and beef aren’t the only items causing sticker shock for Pennsylvania consumers as Thanksgiving kicks off weeks of holiday celebrations centered around food.

And tariffs aren’t the only reason for record-high beef prices. The rapid spread of the deadly New World screw worm in Mexico prompted the USDA to close southern border ports to livestock trade in May, cutting off a key market for U.S. ranchers struggling to meet consumer demand for beef as the domestic cattle inventory is at a 70-year low.

Before Trump’s tariffs, Brazil was the largest importer of beef to the U.S. Trump also lifted 10 percent tariffs on imports of beef from Australia, Argentina and Uruguay, and a 15 percent tariff on New Zealand’s beef imports.

Overall, the grocery pricing research group Datasembly expects a typical market basket for Thanksgiving dinner to cost $61.14 this year, a 7.09 percent increase from 2024’s $57.09.

A 10-pound frozen turkey costs about $24, a 6.67 percent increase from 2024, due to bird flu increases that shrank the U.S. turkey flock to a 40-year low this year.

Many stores are offering discounted or even free turkeys to soften the potential blow to Thanksgiving meal budgets. But even if the bird is cheaper than last year, the ingredients to prepare the rest of the holiday feast may not be. Tariffs on imported steel, for example, have increased prices for canned goods.

Farok Contractor, a distinguished professor of management and global business at the Rutgers Business School, told The Associated Press that customers are paying 10 cents to 40 cents more per can when companies pass on the full cost of tariffs.

One glaring example of higher costs is the price of canned jellied cranberry sauce, a staple on many Thanksgiving tables. It costs about 46 percent more than last year, according to Datasembly. The weather was also a factor. U.S. cranberry production is expected to be down 9 percent this year due to weather conditions, including a drought in Massachusetts, the second-largest U.S. cranberry supplier.

The Datasembly analysis also showed a box of stuffing costs $3.45, a 14.24 percent increase from 2024, and a 12-ounce jar of gravy costs $2.90, up 14.17 percent from last year. Increases are more modest on other items, and pumpkin pie mix is down by 5.33 percent this year.

Pricing out Thanksgiving meals isn’t an exact science, and the Datasembly’s tally differed from other estimates.

The American Farm Bureau Federation, which uses volunteer shoppers in all 50 states to survey prices, reported that Thanksgiving dinner for 10 would cost $55.16 this year, or 5 percent less than last year. The Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, using NielsenIQ data from September, estimated that feeding 10 people on Thursday using store-brand products would cost $80 this year, which is 2 percent to 3 percent lower than last year's estimate.

Some retailers, including Aldi, Kroger, Target and Walmart, are offering Thanksgiving meal bundles that cost about the same as last year. However, CNBC reported the Walmart bundle contains about 30 percent less product and that some brand-name products were substituted with private label products to keep costs lower.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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